000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312145
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Mar 31 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning... 
A short duration gale-force gap wind event is expected across 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Monday as a strong high pressure 
ridge builds southward over eastern Mexico behind a Gulf of 
Mexico cold front. The front will reach the western Bay of 
Campeche tonight, with strong northerly winds quickly beginning 
to spill through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Northerly winds are 
expected to rapidly increase to gale force across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec soon after the onset of northerly winds. Seas will 
quickly build to 8-11 ft early Mon. Winds will diminish to 25-30 
kt Monday morning, and then remain a strong narrow plume of N-NE 
winds through Wed morning. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or 
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for 
further details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...   

A surface trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N82W to 
06N89W. The ITCZ continues from 06N89W to 05N99W to 02N111W to 
03N126W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate showers are within 30 nm 
of the ITCZ between 128W and 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  

A broad ridge extends from 30N126W to the Revillagigedo Islands. 
The gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over Mexico is 
producing moderate to fresh NW-N winds west of Baja California, 
north of 23N. Seas are generally 7-8 ft in NW swell. Winds and 
seas will decrease through Mon night as the ridge weakens. Fresh 
to strong winds are expected Friday and a stronger ridge builds 
into the region.

Gulf of California: Moderate NW winds are likely across most of 
the Gulf of California, with 2-4 ft seas. Moderate to fresh S to 
SW winds are expected over far northern portions of the Gulf Tue 
and Tue night as a low pressure system moves into the SW U.S.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: See the Special Features section for more 
details on a gale warning currently in effect. Gap winds will 
pulse to 25-30 kt at night through Wed morning. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse 
across the Papagayo region during overnight and early morning 
hours through early next week.

Gulf of Panama: moderate N to NE winds will prevail across the 
Gulf and downstream to 05N through Tue night.

Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail through mid-week, 
with fading cross hemispheric SW swell dominating area seas.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front near 30N140W will slowly shift eastward overnight. 
Long period NW swell associated with the front will produce 8-9 
ft seas over far NW waters. The front will gradually weaken Mon 
and Tue.

The gradient between high pressure west of southern California 
and lower pressures near the ITCZ is producing moderate to fresh 
trade winds south of 20N and west of 115W. An earlier altimeter 
pass showed max seas to 11 ft over this region. Areal coverage 
of 8 ft seas will gradually shrink during the next few days as 
high pressure weakens over the northern waters.

$$
Mundell