000 AXPZ20 KNHC 301542 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Mar 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1415 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...DEVELOPING GALE CONDITIONS OVER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... Gale-force N TO NE winds are forecast to develop across the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Sunday night through round sunrise on Monday morning. Sea will quickly build to 8-11 feet within a few hours after sunrise on Monday. Please see the EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N84W to 07N91W. The ITCZ continues from 07N92W to 06N106W to beyond 00.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 03.5N TO 06.5N between 85W AND 88.5W...from 06N TO 08N between 121.5W AND 127.5W...and from 00N TO 03.5N between 133W AND 139W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from well offshore of northern California southeastward through 30N128W to 25N120W to just south of the Islas Revillagigedo at 17N110W. The surface pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures across northern Mexico is producing NW to N winds of 20 to 25 kt across most of the offshore waters of Baja California, from 20N to 30N between 114W and 122W. Seas across this region are running 8 to 11 ft in NW swell this morning. The ridge will weaken and pressures will rise across northern Mexico through Sunday to cause winds to gradually diminish to around 15 kt across these waters by Sunday evening. Sea will also gradually subside to 6-8 ft. Winds are expected to diminish further Mon and Tue as the ridge weakens more and shifts westward, and troughing develop across the Baja peninsula. Gulf of California: Moderate to locally fresh NW winds prevail across the Gulf waters this morning, with peak seas of 4-5 ft across south central portions, and 4-6 ft in SW swell across the entrance. Winds will increase slightly late this afternoon through this evening due to daytime heating, and then repeat the same cycle on Sunday. Expect gentle winds from varying directions Mon and Tue as the pressure gradient weakens considerably and daytime heating effects dominate. Gulf of Tehuantepec: A strong late season cold front is forecast to move southward across the western Gulf of Mexico tonight through Sun night, and initiate gale force northerly winds across the Tehuantepec region late Sun night. See the special features section above for more details. Light to moderate winds and seas of 6 ft or less are expected across the Tehuantepec region today through Sun in advance of this next strong gap wind event. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh southeast to east trade winds will prevail from 85W westward. N to NE trade winds across the SW Caribbean Sea will enhance the gap wind prone areas that are to the west of Central America during this weekend, with winds peaking at night through the morning hours. Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh-to-strong E to NE winds will continue to pulse across the Papagayo region today through early next week. These winds will increase Wed through Thu as high pressure builds across the W Caribbean. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds prevail across the Gulf and downstream to 04.5N this morning and area expected to continue through Sun morning before beginning to diminish modestly. SW swell moving into the region and wind waves from the northerly winds will produce 6-7 ft seas through Sun morning before winds and seas begin to abate. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A stationary front, that is just to the NW of the area, will meander between 142W and 143W today through tonight, then begin to shift slowly eastward and into the far NW waters early Mon morning. Winds behind the front will continue to generate long- period NW swell moving into the far NW waters, and produce seas of 8 to 9 feet. The front will weaken considerably by Mon and then drag across the far NW portion of the area through Tue, with weak high pressure residing on either side of the front. The surface pressure gradient between a 1029 mb high pressure center near 38N128W, and lower pressure in the tropics, is producing an area of fresh to strong trade winds south of about 23N and from 110W westward. Overnight scatterometer data showed strong trades to 25 kt from 08N to 16N between 125W and 135W, where seas were 10-12 ft. The ridge will begin to weaken this afternoon through tonight and induce a diminishing trend in winds and seas across the tradewind belt tonight through Monday. Winds and seas are expected to diminish further through mid week. $$ Stripling