000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301002
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Mar 30 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...Gale-force N- 
to-NE winds are forecast to be present in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec from Sunday night until sunrise on Monday morning. 
The sea heights at the start of this gale-force wind event will 
range from 5 feet to 6 feet, and then they will build to 8 to 11 
feet by a few hours after sunrise on Monday. Please read the 
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...HSFEP2/FZPN03 
KNHC...for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...   

A surface trough passes through the coastal area of Colombia 
near 06N77W TO 07N90W. The ITCZ continues from 07N90W to 06N100W 
to 04N114W to 02N133W beyond 01N140W. Scattered moderate to 
strong rainshowers are within 75 NM on either side of the ITCZ 
from 131W westward. Isolated moderate to locally strong 
rainshowers are within 60 nm to the north of the surface trough 
between 83W and 84W, within 180 nm to the south of the surface 
trough between 86W and 88W, and within 300 nm to the north of 
the ITCZ between 119W and 127W.  

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  

A surface ridge is along 15N120W 24N124W beyond 30N128W.
The surface pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and 
lower pressures in northern Mexico is producing NW-to-N 20 to 25 
knot winds from 25N northward from 119W eastward to the Baja 
California peninsula. The wind speeds will slow down later this 
afternoon and tonight, from fresh-to-strong to just fresh, 
becoming moderate-to-fresh by Sunday afternoon. The sea heights 
will be ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet this morning, subsiding 
gradually to 8 to 9 feet later this afternoon, and to 6 feet to 
7 feet on Sunday afternoon. 

Gulf of California: Moderate NW winds, from 24N to 29N now, and 
gentle breezes elsewhere, will increase to moderate-to-fresh N 
of 23N, on Saturday and Sunday. The sea heights will measure 3 
feet or less, from 24.5N northward from now until at least 
Tuesday.  

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section 
for information about the gale-force wind event that is forecast 
to occur from Sunday night until sunrise on Monday morning, as a 
strong cold front moves into the SW Gulf of Mexico. The wind 
speeds have slowed down quite a bit during the last 24 hours. 
The wind speeds will remain light to gentle through the weekend. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh southeast to east trade winds will prevail 
from 85W westward. N to NE trade winds across the SW Caribbean 
Sea will enhance the gap wind prone areas that are to the west 
of Central America during this weekend.  

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh-to-strong E to NE winds will continue to 
pulse until the early this afternoon. Expect fresh breezes to 
start during the time period from a few hours before sunrise 
until the early afternoon hours, on Sunday, and then the same 
thing at the same times, on Sunday and Monday. Strong breezes 
are forecast from Tuesday night until a few hours after sunrise 
on Wednesday morning.

Gulf of Panama: SW swell moving into the region and wind waves 
from fresh northerly gap winds will produce 6-7 ft seas through 
Sun. Winds will diminish Sun and Mon.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A stationary front, that is to the west of the area,  will 
remain along 143W, and dissipate eventually. The winds that are 
behind the front will generate long-period NW swell of 8 feet to 
9 feet, that will propagate into the NW corner of the forecast 
area.

The surface pressure gradient, that is between a 1031 mb high 
pressure center that is near 38N128W, and lower pressure in the 
tropics, is producing an area of fresh to strong trade winds 
from 110W westward. The most recent scatterometer data show 
strong breezes from 09N to 17N from 127W westward. The sea 
heights are ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet, from 19N southward 
from 130W westward, according to the latest altimeter data. The 
wind speeds will slow down, and the sea heights will subside, on 
Sunday and Monday. 

$$
mt