000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291619 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Mar 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N84.5W TO 06.5N90W. The ITCZ continues from 06.5N90W to 02N109W to beyond 02.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm N and 90 nm S of the trough between 84W and 90W, within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 96W and 109W, and within 30 nm N and 120 nm S of ITCZ between 127W and 138W. A second southern hemispheric ITCZ extends from 02.5S110W to 03S139W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm S of this second ITCZ between 110W and 122W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Surface high pressure is centered well offshore of southern California. The associated pressure gradient between the subtropical high and lower surface pressure in northern Mexico is producing fresh to locally strong NW to N winds across the offshore waters of Baja California this morning, generally north of 21N. These winds will slowly expand in coverage to 122W by Sat morning, and then gradually diminish through Sun as the ridge weakens and shifts northward. Seas are currently running 7- 10 ft in mixed NW swell and will increase slightly to 8-11 ft by Sat before slowly subsiding Sun through Mon. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate northwesterly winds will prevail across the Gulf waters this morning, N of 29N, and increase to fresh across central portions this evening through tonight. Seas will remain 3 ft or less across far N portions and build to 3-5 ft tonight under the freshening wind flow. A similar pattern is expected Sat morning through Sun, with peak winds during the evening and night hours. No significant change in this pattern is expected through Tue. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue to diminish today, and fall below 20 kt by midday and southerly wind flow prevails across the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate southerly winds are generally expected across the Tehuantepec region during the next few days, with gentle offshore winds at night. The next gap wind event is forecast to begin on Sunday night/Monday morning as another strong cold front moves into the SW Gulf of Mexico. Strong to near gale- force northerly winds are forecast on Sunday night/Monday morning, and again from Monday night through all of Tuesday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh southeast to east tradewinds generally prevail across the offshore waters westward of 85W. N to NE tradewinds across the SW Caribbean are yielding typical offshore wind flow across the gap wind prone areas of Central Caribbean, and will weaken slightly over the weekend. Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong winds will continue to pulse to around 25 kt at night across the Gulf of Papagayo through Saturday afternoon, and again from Tuesday night until Thursday night. Gulf of Panama: SW swell moving into the region this morning is producing seas of 5-6 ft across the open waters. Northerly winds have strengthened this morning across the Gulf and have increased to around 20 kt with winds to 25 kt veering NE around the point along the coast of Punta Mala. Seas in this zone are 6- 7 ft. Little change is expected through Sun before winds diminish Sun afternoon into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front, that currently is to the west of the area, will stall just west of the area along about 143W, and not reach the NW corner of the forecast area. Winds behind the front will generate more long-period NW swell propagating into the forecast area, that will sweep across the region during the next few days. The surface pressure gradient, between 1029 mb high pressure near 33N130W and lower pressure in the tropics, is producing an area of fresh to strong trade winds from 110W westward, with peak winds around 25 kt from 05N to 16N west of 133W. Sea are running 8 to 11 feet across this tradewind belt with mixed NW and SW swell. Little change is expected through Sat before winds and seas begin to slowly subside Sun into Mon. $$ Stripling