000 AXPZ20 KNHC 281710 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Mar 28 2019 Corrected Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force north to northeast winds up to 40 kt will continue till around 18Z this afternoon as the tight pressure gradient over southeastern Mexico slackens. Peak wave heights associated with this event are up to 18 ft. These wave heights will slowly subside through late this afternoon. The north to northeast winds will diminish to strong speeds late tonight into Fri morning, to moderate to fresh winds Fri afternoon, then become light and variable winds Fri evening and through the upcoming weekend. The wave heights will subside to 8 to 11 ft by late tonight, to 8 to 9 ft in mixed northeast and southwest swell by early Fri afternoon and to below 8 ft by late Fri night. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in mixed swell will reach will downstream of the Gulf to near 12N between 94W and 96W by late tonight and into early Fri before subsiding to less than 8 ft Fri afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A tough extends from the coast of Colombia near 0677W to 06N88W, where overnight scatterometer data indicated that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 05N91W to 02N110W to 01N120W to 02N131W and to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 124W and 129W, and within 30 nm south of the ITCZ between 121W and 124W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the trough between 86W and 88W, and also within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 88W and 94W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: The ongoing gale force gap wind event is forecast to end early this afternoon as the tight pressure gradient over southeastern Mexico slackens. Please refer to the Special Features section above for more specific details regarding this event. The next gap wind event of strong to near gale force northerly winds is forecast to begin early on Mon of next week, with gale force winds expected Mon night. Gulf of California: Light to gentle winds and seas less than 3 ft will prevail through through this afternoon, then moderate to fresh northwest winds develop this evening and are forecast to last through the upcoming weekend as the pressure gradient over the region tightens some. The gradient associated with high pressure of 1024 mb near is presently supporting gentle to moderate northwest winds across the offshore waters. The pressure gradient will tighten between this high and low pressure over northern Mexico by tonight allowing for these winds to increase to strong speeds and continue into Sat. Wave heights with these winds will build to a peak of 11 Ft on Fri, and lower to around 9 ft on Sun as winds will continue to diminish. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong to near gale force northeast to east winds will continue pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo through late Fri morning. The comparatively fastest wind speeds each day will occur during the late night and early morning hours, as nocturnal drainage flow enhances wind speeds. The sea heights will peak to 11 feet during this period and extend downstream to 08N92W. The wind speeds generally will range from moderate to fresh during the remainder weekend. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to strong north to northeast winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish this afternoon to moderate to fresh winds, then become strong again tonight and diminish Fri morning. Peak wave heights to 9 ft mainly due to a southwest component combined with the long duration of northeast wind waves will continue in and near the Gulf through Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... At the surface, a trough extends from near 28N126W to 25N131W and to near 22N126W. Northwest swell producing wave heights peaking up to 8 ft are north of 24N and between 123W and 134W. This swell will decay over the next few hours allowing for seas to drop below 8 ft. A cold front is expected to become stationary just to the northwest of the discussion area on Fri. This front, like the recent others, will introduce another set of long-period northwest swell that will propagate southeastward across the far northwest waters of the area through Sat, however, this swell is note expected to cover the great expanse of area the recent ones did as it is forecast to be rather-short lived as it loses its energy sooner than the ones of recent weeks. The pressure difference between the high pressure center located over the far northeast part of the area at 32N124W and lower pressure in the tropics is allowing for an area of fresh to strong northeast to east winds to exist from 07N to 13N west of 134W, and from 06N to 12N between 124W and 134W along with seas of 9 to 10 ft. This area of winds is expected to change little over the next couple days, then diminish to mainly fresh winds by late on Sat in response to a weakening gradient. A combination of longer period northwest and southwest swell is maintaining an area of 8 to 11 ft seas generally south of about 25N and west of 110W and south of 08N between 94W and 110W. These seas will change little through the upcoming weekend, with swell becoming more mixed south of 14N and west of 115W. $$ Aguirre