000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272147 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Mar 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force winds up to 40 kt will persist through late Thu morning as surface high pressure builds southward across the western Gulf of Mexico. Peak seas will be in the range of 12-18 ft reaching well downstream of the Gulf to about 10N100W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 05N77W to 05N81W to 06N85W. The ITCZ continues from 06N86W to 05N94W to 0N105W to 02N130W to beyond 04N140W. A second ITCZ extends from 05S93W to 05S107W to 03S114W to 04S130W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 03S to 05N between 96W and 104W, and from 01N to 08N W of 118W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Please refer to the Special Features section above for more information about the Gale Warning currently in effect. Gale force conditions are expected to diminish by Thu afternoon as the ridge across the Gulf of Mexico slides east and return flow establishes in the basin. However, fresh to strong winds will continue through Fri morning. The next gap wind event is forecast to start Monday morning. Gulf of California: Light to gentle winds and seas less than 4 ft will prevail through early Fri. NNW winds in the range of 15- 20 kt will establish afterwards continuing through Sun as high pressure briefly builds over the Great Basin. Elsewhere, weakening surface high pressure is centered west of Baja California Norte with moderate NW winds over the adjacent offshore waters. Stronger high pressure will build toward the region on Thu behind a weakening cold front. This will enhance the offshore pressure gradient and support fresh to strong NW to N winds off Baja California Norte starting Thu evening and continuing through Fri night. Seas will build to 10 ft by Thu night over the waters north of Punta Eugenia. Fresh winds and seas to 9 ft in mixed swell will dominate the offshore waters Fri night through Sun morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong to near gale force NE to E winds will continue pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo through late Fri morning. The strongest winds each day will occur during the late night and early morning hours as nocturnal drainage flow enhances wind speeds. Seas will peak to 11 ft during this period and extend downstream to near 08N92W. Wind speed will be generally moderate to fresh the remainder weekend. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to strong N to NE winds in the Gulf of Panama will persist through Thu morning as surface high pressure builds into the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh wind speeds will dominate the gulf waters Thu afternoon through Sun. Seas to 8 ft are expected during the gap wind event being supported by NE wind waves and cross-equatorial SW swell. Elsewhere, satellite analysis show a large area of light to moderate smoke impacting the offshore waters off Guatemala and El Salvador. Further south, southern hemisphere swell will continue to impact the offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Fri. Expect seas to 8 ft as longer period SW swell mixes with shorter period NE swell downstream from the Gulf of Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough extends from 30N123W to 24N133W ahead of a cold front extending from 30N125W to 26N133W. NW swell associated with these features is supporting an area of 8-10 ft seas over the NW forecast waters roughly north of 22N west of 125W. Another cold front is expected to stall just NW of the forecast area on Fri, which will introduce another set of long period NW swell that will propagate SE across the high seas beginning Thu. Scatterometer data show moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds from 03N to 14N W of 110W. Seas in this region are generally in the 8-9 ft range. The trade winds will strengthen on Thu and persist through Sat morning as strong surface high pressure builds north of 30N. Further east, a combination of longer period NW and SW swell is maintaining an area of 8-10 ft seas generally south of 15N between 92W and 110W. Similar wave heights will persist into Fri being supported by the gap winds events in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Gulf of Papagayo. Seas will subside over the weekend as gap wind speeds diminish and the residual swell gradually decays across the area. $$ Ramos