000 AXPZ20 KNHC 271005 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Mar 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong pressure gradient is in southern Mexico. Gale-force gap winds are funneling through the Chivela Pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale-force winds are expected to persist until Thursday afternoon, as surface high pressure builds southward across eastern Mexico behind a cold front. The wind speeds are forecast to reach at least 40 knots during the late night and early morning hours. The wave heights will peak at 19 feet on Wednesday morning. The swell that is generated by this high wind event will propagate well downstream beyond 100W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 05N77W to 05N80W to 06N82W to 06N86W. The ITCZ continues from 06N86W to 04N97W to 01N107W to 01N122W beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 180 nm N of the ITCZ and within 120 nm to the S of the ITCZ W of 87W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Please refer to the Special Features section for more information about a current Warning for gale- force winds. The gale-force winds are forecast to continue until Thursday afternoon. Gulf of California: Relatively tranquil conditions will prevail through Friday. The wind speeds will be light, and the sea heights will be less than 3 feet. Moderate northerly flow will persist west of Baja California Norte through Wed night. Residual swell over the region will continue to decay through Wed. Strong high pressure will build southward on Thursday. Fresh to strong NW winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet, will develop in the Baja California Norte offshore waters, from Thursday night through Sunday night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong NE to E winds will continue in the Gulf of Papagayo through Saturday morning. The comparatively fastest wind speeds will occur during the late night and early morning hours. The highest sea heights will range from 10 feet to 11 feet on Wednesday and Thursday. NE swell will propagate well downstream from Papagayo through Friday night. Gulf of Panama: N to NE winds in the Gulf of Panama will strengthen through Thursday morning, as surface high pressure builds in the Caribbean Sea. A combination of NE wind waves and cross-equatorial SW swell will produce sea heights of 6 feet to 8 feet well downstream from Panama. Southern hemisphere swell will continue to impact Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through the end of the week. The sea heights will build to 7 to 8 feet south of the Galapagos by Wednesday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front will move into the far NW part of the forecast area tonight. NW swell associated with the front will impact the northern waters through midweek. Another cold front will stall just NW of the forecast area on Friday. The surface pressure gradient, between a high pressure center that is near 26N123W and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ, is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds. Altimeter data suggest sea heights of 8 feet to 11 feet, from 03N to 20N west of 110W, the result of long period NW swell and NE wind waves. The trade winds will strengthen on Thursday, as surface high pressure builds north of 30N. NW swell is maintaining an area of sea heights of 8 feet or greater W of 105W. NE swell, generated by gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo and in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, will merge with NW swell and cross-equatorial SW swell, resulting in a large area of sea heights of 8 feet to 10 feet in mixed swell S of 15N, and west of 92W later in the week. $$ mt