000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250033 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Mar 24 2019 Corrected Discussion section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong north-south pressure gradient is expected to develop across southern Mexico Mon into Mon night as high pressure builds across the western Gulf of Mexico. This will support strengthening northerly flow funneling through the Chivela Pass with winds likely reaching gale force by late Mon night. Northerly winds are expected to continue pulsing to gale force Tue through Thu with the strongest winds occurring during the late night and early morning hours. Seas will build to 12 ft or greater with each gale event as northeast swell propagates well downstream beyond 100W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 06N77W to 05N86W, where scatterometer data from this afternoon indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 04N100W to 02N114W to 01N127W to 05N135W and to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 97W and 100W, and within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 93W and 95W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Please read the Special Features section above for more information on the Gale Warning in effect beginning Mon night. Otherwise, strong winds will pulse over the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the late night and early morning hours through Mon. Gulf of California: Relatively tranquil conditions will prevail through midweek with winds generally less than 15 kt and seas in the 1-3 ft range. Elsewhere, overnight scatterometer data depicted moderate to fresh northerly winds across the offshore waters off the Baja Peninsula north of 26N. The pressure gradient between high pressure of 1025 mb centered to the west of Baja California Norte at 31N123W and lower pressure over interior Mexico will continue to generate moderate to fresh winds across the offshore waters off the Baja Peninsula through Thu night. Wave heights peaking to around 11 over the northern offshore waters will only subside slightly through early Mon as the swell continues to propagate southeastward through these waters. This swell will reach as far south as the Revillagigedo Islands by early Mon. The swell will gradually decay through midweek which will allow seas to subside below 8 ft across most of the area by Wed. Looking ahead, another high pressure system building eastward towards the region on Thu may support fresh to strong northerly winds off Baja California Norte Thu and Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong to near gale force northeast to east winds will continue pulsing over the Gulf of Papagayo through Thu night. The strongest winds will occur during the late night and early morning hours with the added impact of drainage flow. Seas will build to 10 ft by Wed morning with northeast swell propagating well downstream of the Gulf through Thu night. Gulf of Panama: The earlier fresh to locally strong north to northeast winds over the Gulf of Panama have diminished to mainly moderate speeds this afternoon per latest Ascat pass. These winds are expected to continue at these speeds through Tue afternoon before increasing back to fresh to locally strong speeds late Tue night through as high pressure builds over the Caribbean. Seas will build to 8-9 ft downstream of the Gulf Wed night into Thu with mixed SW swell and NE wind waves. Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, 5-7 ft seas in mixed swell will continue through tonight before gradually subsiding. Elsewhere, light to moderate winds with 4-6 ft seas will prevail through midweek. REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected A weakening frontal trough extends from near 32N130W to 25N140W. On its heels, a cold front has barely moved over the far northwest waters of the area from near 32N133W to west of the area at 29N140W. The main marine impacts from this new cold front will be that it will introduce another set of long-period northwest swell through waters of the NW portion of the discussion area through Mon. This cold front will reach a position from near 32N128W to 26N133W, and weakening to 22N140W by early Mon afternoon, and is forecast to weaken from near 32N127W to 27N131W and weakening stationary from there to 22N140W by early Tue afternoon while yet another cold front moves to along a position from near 32N137W to 28N140W. This cold front will be followed by a set of long-period swell, but the highest of its associated wave heights, forecast to peak to around 13 ft, are expected to skirt the far northern boundary of the discussion area through Wed as the front begins to weaken while it moves across the north-central and northeast waters of the area. An enhanced pressure gradient between high pressure north of the region and the ITCZ is supporting fresh to locally strong northeast to east trade winds from roughly 07N to 13N west of 120W. These winds are expected to diminish to fresh speeds by Mon as the high pressure centered near 31N123W shifts east-southeast and weakens. Elsewhere, northwest swell propagating across the high seas domain is maintaining seas of 8 ft or greater over the waters generally to the north of 02N and west of about 112W. An area of mixed swell with seas to 8 ft well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo will decay through late tonight. Northeast swell generated by gap winds over the Gulfs of Papagayo and Tehuantepec will merge with northwest swell and long period cross-equatorial south to southwest swell Tue through Thu. This will result in a large swath of 8-9 ft seas that will cover the area from the Equator to 15N and extend westward from near 90W to beyond 140W. $$ Aguirre