000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241522 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1520 UTC Sun Mar 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong north-south pressure gradient is expected to develop across southern Mexico Mon into Mon night as high pressure builds across the western Gulf of Mexico. This will support strengthening northerly flow funneling through the Chivela Pass with winds likely reaching gale force by late Mon night. Northerly winds are expected to continue pulsing to gale force Tue through Thu with the strongest winds occurring during the late night and early morning hours. Seas will build to 12 ft or greater with each gale event as NE swell propagates well downstream beyond 100W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 05N77W to 04.5N85W. The ITCZ continues from 04.5N85W to 05N90W to 03N100W to 01N115W to 02N128W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 90W and 95W, and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ west of 138W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Please read the Special Features section above for more information on the Gale Warning in effect beginning Mon night. Otherwise, strong winds will pulse over the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the late night and early morning hours through Mon. Gulf of California: Relatively tranquil conditions will prevail through midweek with winds generally less than 15 kt and seas in the 1-3 ft range. Elsewhere, overnight scatterometer data depicted moderate to fresh northerly winds across the offshore waters off the Baja Peninsula north of 26N. The pressure gradient between high pressure centered NW of Baja California Norte and lower pressure over interior Mexico will continue to generate moderate to fresh winds across the offshore waters off the Baja Peninsula through Thu. Wave heights will peak around 11 ft over the northern offshore waters today as NW swell continues moving across the region. This swell will reach as far south as the Revillagigedo Islands by early Mon. The swell will gradually decay through midweek which will allow seas to subside below 8 ft across most of the area by Wed. Looking ahead, another high pressure system building eastward towards the region on Thu may support fresh to strong northerly winds off Baja California Norte Thu and Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong to near gale force NE to E winds will continue pulsing over the Gulf of Papagayo through Thu night. The strongest winds will occur during the late night and early morning hours with the added impact of drainage flow. Seas will build to 10 ft by Wed morning with NE swell propagating well downstream of the Gulf through Thu night. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds over the Gulf of Panama this morning will diminish to moderate to fresh this afternoon and persist through midweek. Strong N to NE winds will develop over the Gulf of Panama Wed night as high pressure builds over the Caribbean. Seas will build to 8-9 ft downstream of the Gulf Wed night into Thu with mixed SW swell and NE wind waves. Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, 5-7 ft seas in mixed swell will continue through tonight before gradually subsiding. Elsewhere, light to moderate winds with 4-6 ft seas will prevail through midweek. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weakening stationary front extends from 30N132W to 25N140W. Meanwhile, a cold front is approaching the forecast waters from the NW and will move into the northern waters later today. This front will introduce another set of long period NW swell into the waters for the NW portion of the discussion area through tonight. An enhanced pressure gradient between high pressure north of the region and the ITCZ is supporting fresh to locally strong NE to E trade winds from roughly 07N to 13N west of 120W. These winds are expected to diminish to fresh speeds by Mon as the high pressure center weakens. Elsewhere, NW swell propagating across the high seas domain is maintaining seas of 8 ft or greater over the waters generally N of 02N and W of 112W. An area of mixed swell with seas to 8 ft well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo will decay later today. NE swell generated by gap winds over the Gulfs of Papagayo and Tehuantepec will merge with NW swell and long period cross- equatorial S to SW swell Tue through Thu. This will result in a large swath of 8 ft seas stretching from the Equator to 15N and extending westward from 90W to beyond 140W. $$ Reinhart