000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240952 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 646 UTC Sun Mar 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0845 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 05N77W to 04N85W. The ITCZ continues from 04N85W to 05N92W to 01N111W to 01N121W to 04N136W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 05N to 07N between 128W and 136W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong winds will pulse over the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the late night and early morning hours through Mon morning, then winds will abate until the next gap wind event begins with winds of near gale force Mon night and to possibly gale force gap winds Tue through Wed night. Gulf of California: Rather tranquil conditions will continue through early next week with winds generally less than 15 kt and seas in the 1-3 ft range. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between an area of high pressure center lingering to the NW of Baja California Norte and lower pressure over interior Mexico will continue to generate moderate to fresh winds across the offshore waters off the Baja Peninsula through Thu. A reinforcing set of NW swell is moving into the area and will propagate as far S as the Revillagigedo Islands by early Mon. Wave heights will peak around 11 ft over the northern offshore waters today, then subside for the next few days as the swell decays over the region. Seas for all of these waters should subside below 8 ft by Wed night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong to near gale force NE to E winds and seas to 10 ft are expected over the Gulf of Papagayo through Thu night. Gulf of Panama: Strong N to NE winds over the Gulf of Panama will diminish to fresh this afternoon through Wed. Strong N to NE winds will pulse over the Gulf of Panama Wed night as stronger high pressure builds over the Caribbean. Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed swell will continue through Sun night before subsiding slightly. Elsewhere, light to moderate winds with 4-6 ft seas will prevail through the middle of next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weakening cold front extends from near 32N116W to 29N123W, then continues as a weakening stationary front to 27N134W to 25N140W. Seas in this area are subsiding as NW swell decay and the front continues to weaken. A new cold front will cross 30N140W around midday today. This front will introduce yet another large set of long period NW swell into the waters for the NW portion of the discussion area today. An enhanced pressure gradient between the ridge of high pressure and the ITCZ is supporting fresh to locally strong NE to E trade winds from roughly 07N to 12N west of 130W. These winds are expected to diminish to fresh speeds by Mon afternoon as the high center shifts ESE and weakens slightly. Elsewhere, NW swell propagating across the forecast waters is maintaining seas of 8 ft or greater over the waters generally N of 03N and W of 114W. This area of swell will begin to merge with cross-equatorial S to SW swell Tue and Wed. For the waters S of Mexico and Central America, an area of mixed swell with seas to 8 ft is noted well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo, or roughly from 04N to 10N and between 91W and 110W. This area of swell will decay today. NE swell generated by gap winds over the Gulfs of Papagayo and Tehuantepec will merge with NW swell generated by gales NW of the discussion area and long period S to SW swell crossing the Equator Tue through Thu. This will produce a long swath of 8 ft seas stretching from the Equator and 15N and extending westward from 90W to beyond 140W. $$ CAM