000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Mar 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 06N77W to 04N85W, where scatterometer data from this afternoon indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ, and continues to 04N98W to 01N112W to 03N125W and to beyond the area at 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 88W and 91W and between 92W and 95W, and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 96W and 98W. A second ITCZ is located in the southern hemisphere with its associated convection south of 03.4S. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: The latest Ascat pass revealed moderate to fresh north to northeast winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds will become light and variable by early this evening as the pressure gradient relaxes over southern Mexico. Beyond Mon, gale force gap winds are possible over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue through Wed night. Gulf of California: Rather tranquil conditions will continue through early next week with winds generally less than 15 kt and seas in the 1-3 ft range. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between a 1027 mb high pressure center analyzed near 32N131W and lower pressure over interior Mexico will continue to generate moderate to fresh winds across the offshore waters off the Baja Peninsula through early Mon. Winds will diminish slightly afterwards for a brief times as the high pressure shifts east-southeast and weakens slightly. Peak wave heights of 9 ft were analyzed this morning in the northwest swell off the coast of Baja California Norte. Another large set of northwest swell will move into the area tonight and reach as far south as the Revillagigedo Islands by early Mon. Wave heights will peak around 11 ft over the northern offshore waters tonight, then subside into early next week as the swell decays over the region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong to near gale force northeast winds across the Gulf of Papagayo resulting in seas to 10 ft just downstream of the Gulf will diminish to fresh winds by early this evening. These winds will pulse back to strong to near gale force speeds late tonight into early Sun, then diminish to strong speeds by early Sun afternoon and continue to pulse to these speeds through Mon night. Strong high pressure over the Caribbean next week will result in stronger gap winds pulsing to near gale force Tue night through Wed night. Gulf of Panama: North to northeast winds over the Gulf of Panama will pulse to strong speeds tonight, then diminish to generally fresh winds beginning early Sun afternoon and through Tue night. Strong winds will return to the region Wed and Wed night with a stronger pressure gradient across central America. Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, 5-7 ft seas in mixed swell will continue through Sun night before subsiding slightly. Elsewhere, light to moderate winds with 4-6 ft seas will prevail through the middle of next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from near 32N119W to 30N127W, where it becomes a nearly stationary front to 26N140W. Behind the front, a recent altimeter pass indicated seas to 15 ft near 29N134W within the long period northwest swell. This swell will continue propagating southeastward while slowly decaying through early next week. The cold front will continue eastward while weakening through Sun night, while the stationary front weakens to a trough and another cold front approaches the far NW corner of the area. The trough will weaken through Sun night as the new cold front merges with it from near 32N130W to 27N135W and stationary to 25N140W. Behind this cold front, yet another large set of long period northwest swell will propagate through northwest and north-central sections of the area with seas expected to peak around 13 ft near 30N140W on Sun. An enhanced pressure gradient between aforementioned 1027 mb high pressure near 32N131W and the ITCZ is supporting fresh to locally strong northeast to east trade winds from roughly 07N to 14N west of 120W as was inferred by an Ascat pass from this afternoon. These winds are expected to gradually diminish into early next week as the high weakens and the gradient relaxes. Elsewhere, northwest swell propagating across the forecast waters is maintaining seas of 8 ft or greater over the waters to the west of a line from near 32N116W to 23N112W to 11N110W to 03N117W. Over the eastern part of the area, an area of mixed swell with seas to 8 ft is noted well downstream of the gaps roughly from 04N to 10N and between 91W and 110W. This area of swell will decay through early Sun. The next round of long period northwest swell will result in 8 ft seas extending as far southward as the equator and as far east as 108W by Mon. $$ Aguirre