000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231515 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1515 UTC Sat Mar 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the NW coast of Colombia near 05.5N77W to 04N85W. The ITCZ continues from 04N85W to 05N90W to 02N105W to beyond 02N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 88W and 96W, and from 04N to 06N between 126W and 130W. A second ITCZ is located in the southern hemisphere with its associated convection south of 03.4S. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: A partial overnight scatterometer pass showed moderate to fresh N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Fresh to locally strong winds likely occurring over the Gulf this morning will rapidly diminish today as the pressure gradient relaxes over southern Mexico. Looking ahead, gale force gap winds are possible over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue through Wed night. Gulf of California: Benign conditions will continue through early next week with winds generally less than 15 kt and seas in the 1-3 ft range. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between 1024 mb high pressure near 28N127W and lower pressure over interior Mexico will continue to generate moderate to fresh winds across the offshore waters off the Baja Peninsula through the weekend. Winds will diminish slightly into early next week as the high weakens. Peak seas around 9 ft were analyzed this morning in the NW swell off the coast of Baja California Norte. Another round of NW swell will move into the area tonight and reach as far south as the Revillagigedo Islands by Sun night. Wave heights will peak around 11 ft over the northern offshore waters tonight, then subside into early next week as the swell decays over the region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong to near gale force NE winds across the Gulf of Papagayo this morning were likely accompanied by seas to 10 ft just downstream of the Gulf. Winds will diminish to fresh to strong speeds later today and continue pulsing through Tue. Strong high pressure over the Caribbean next week will result in stronger gap winds pulsing to near gale force Tue night through Wed night. Gulf of Panama: N to NE winds over the Gulf of Panama will pulse to strong speeds tonight, then diminish to generally fresh winds Sun through Tue night. Strong winds will return to the region Wed and Wed night with a stronger pressure gradient across central America. Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, 5-7 ft seas in mixed swell will persist through the weekend. Elsewhere, light to moderate winds with 4-6 ft seas will prevail through the middle of next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A nearly stationary front extends from 30N127W to 25N140W. Behind the front, a recent altimeter pass indicated seas to 15 ft near 29N134W within the long period NW swell. This swell will continue propagating SE while slowly decaying over the next several days. As the original cold front dissipates, another cold front will approach from the NW on Sun and cross the NW waters later Sun through Mon. This cold front will introduce another set of long period NW swell, with seas expected to peak around 13 ft near 30N140W on Sun. An enhanced pressure gradient between 1024 mb high pressure near 28N127W and the ITCZ is supporting fresh to locally strong NE to E trade winds based on overnight scatterometer data. These winds are expected to gradually diminish into early next week as the high weakens and the gradient relaxes. Elsewhere, NW swell propagating across the forecast waters is maintaining seas of 8 ft or greater across much of the forecast waters N of 04N and W of 120W. East of 120W, another area of mixed swell with seas to 8 ft is noted well downstream of the gaps roughly between 95W and 105W. The next round of long period NW swell will result in 8 ft seas extending as far southward as the equator and as far east as 110W by Mon. $$ Reinhart