000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230924 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 625 UTC Sat Mar 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0845 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the NW coast of Colombia near 07N77W to 07N85W to 06N89W. The ITCZ continues from 06N89W to 02N107W to 03N124W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ between 89W and 100W, from 03N to 05N between 116W and 119W and from 06N to 08N between 128W and 131W. A second ITCZ extends from 03.4S110W to 03S120W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present S of 02S and W of 116W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: Benign conditions will continue through early next week, with seas remaining in the 1-3 ft range. The pressure gradient between 1027 mb high pressure centered near 28N127W and low pressure over interior Mexico will continue to generate fresh winds along the Pacific coast and offshore waters of the Baja Peninsula through this weekend. Winds will diminish slightly Sun and Mon as the high weakens. Seas W of the Baja Peninsula range between 7 and 9 ft in NW swell. These seas will subside around a foot today before a new set of NW swell propagates into the area and causes seas to build to between 8 and 11 ft Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong NE winds across the Gulf of Papagayo will pulse to near gale force during the late night and early morning hours this morning, then high pres ridging over the Caribbean will weaken slightly and cap the strongest winds to strong speeds. Stronger high pres over the Caribbean will bring a return to near gale force winds to this area Tue night and Wed night. Gulf of Panama: Strong N to NE winds over the Gulf of Panama will diminish to fresh speeds Sun through Tue night, then become strong again Wed. Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, 4-5 ft seas in mixed swell will build to the range of 5-7 ft during the upcoming weekend as both long period SW and NW swell arrive. Light to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft seas will be the general rule elsewhere through the middle of next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front crosses the NW corner of the discussion area from near 32N126W to 25N140W. The front has ushered in a new set of northwest long period swell, with seas currently peaking near 15 ft west of the front. The swell will propagate SE while slowly subsiding during the next several days. The cold front will slowly shift eastward before dissipating by Sun. A new cold front will assume a position from near 32N137W to 30N140W early on Sun, then traverse the NW waters Sun through Mon. This next cold front will introduce another robust round of long period NW swell, with seas expected to peak around 13 ft near 30N140W Sun. The pressure gradient between high pressure of 1027 mb centered near 28N127W and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds from 08N to 12N west of 125W. These winds are expected to diminish slowly through Mon as the high weakens gradually. Elsewhere, NW swell propagating across the forecast waters is maintaining seas of 8 ft or greater across much of the forecast waters N of 5N and W of 120W. The areal coverage of 8 ft seas will slowly subside today before the next round of long period NW swell once again causes the area of seas above 8 ft to expand southward to near 03N and eastward to near 110W by Mon afternoon. $$ CAM