000 AXPZ20 KNHC 201416 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Mar 20 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse to near gale-force during the overnight hours, increasing to minimal gale force Thu night into early Fri as the local pres gradient tightens slightly. Seas will peak near 12 ft during the period of strongest winds. Mainly light and variable winds are expected thereafter, except moderate northerly winds during the overnight and early morning hours. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 07N92W to 02N110W to 02N130W to 02N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the axis between 91W and 97W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 09N between 81W and 85W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. Gulf of California: A weak cold front will approach the northern Gulf of California today. S to SW gap winds will strengthen to around 20 kt with the passage of the front. Otherwise, fairly benign marine conditions will prevail through the upcoming weekend, with seas 3 ft or less. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds will prevail through the upcoming weekend. NW swell will propagate into the waters off the Baja California Norte coast today, then spread southward across the rest of the Baja Peninsula, with seas greater than 8 ft or greater expected over this area by Thu, before starting to gradually subside. Another swell event will reach the waters during the upcoming weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Winds will pulse to strong during the overnight hours across the Gulf of Papagayo through the forecast period, strengthening some and expanding in coverage Fri. Seas will peak around 9 ft during the strongest winds. Gulf of Panama: Mainly moderate to fresh northerly winds will prevail, pulsing to strong Thu night into early Fri, then again the next two nights. Seas will peak around 8 ft during the strongest winds. Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, 4-6 ft seas in mixed swell will persist, building to 5-7 ft during the upcoming weekend with the arrival of both long period SW and NW swell. Elsewhere, light to moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas will prevail for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extending from 30N118W to 23N124W to 19N132W has ushered in a large set of NW swell into the area. Seas are currently peaking near 13 ft over NW and N central waters. The swell will continue to propagate SE across the waters while subsiding the next couple of days. By Thu afternoon, seas 8 ft or greater will cover most of the area W of 110W. A reinforcing set of NW swell will arrive Thu morning along with another cold front which will weaken into the early part of the upcoming weekend. Another cold front and set of NW swell will arrive early Sun. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds prevail mainly S of 18N and west of 120W to the ITCZ. High pres building behind the front will bring a slight increase to the trades today. $$ Lewitsky