000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161531 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1249 UTC Sat Mar 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on |1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure behind a cold front in the western Gulf of Mexico supports northerly gale force winds across the Tehunatepec region, peaking around 40 kt this morning. Gale conditions are forecast to persist through early Mon morning. Then, winds will continue to pulse to minimal gale force, mainly at night, through Wed night. With the first pulse of high winds, seas will quickly build to 13-14 ft this morning. The resultant north to northeast swell will propagate downstream away from the Gulf of Tehuantepec to near 100W through Mon. Gale Warning: A strong cold front will reach the NW part of the discussion area on Sun. Associated NW swell will arrive first this afternoon, followed by strong southerly winds tonight into Sun morning. The front will be near 30N140W by Sun evening. Gale force winds are possible ahead of the front through early Mon morning. NW swell will build to 17 ft in the wake of the front by Mon evening, then continue to propagate across the waters W of 120W through early Wed morning while gradually subsiding. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 07N82W to 05N91W. The ITCZ continues from 05N91W to 06N115W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 04N to 08N between 115W and 123W. A second an active ITCZ persists S of the Equator. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gulf of California: High pressure across the U.S. Great Basin is weakening while shifting eastward. As a result, winds have diminish to 15 to 20 kt this morning, with the wind-driven seas subsiding. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the Gulf of California over the next several days, with seas generally under 4 ft. Gentle to moderate NW winds off Baja California will persist through early next week. Large NW swell will arrive Tue night through Wed night, building seas to 8 to 11 ft. NW winds will increase at that time as well as the pressure gradient tightens. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: High pres across Central America from the western Caribbean will continue to support strong to near gale force winds in the Gulf of Papagayo through Mon. Winds will be greatest during the overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow. Seas will build to 10 or 11 ft. Gulf of Panama: Fresh northerly winds will prevail this morning, with other pulses of fresh to strong winds anticipated tonight and again Sun night into early Mon. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate NE to E winds along with 5 to 7 ft seas will prevail through Wed night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the gale warning in the Open Pacific NW Waters. A broad ridge extends SE from near 32N130W to just beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ supports moderate to fresh trade winds S of 20N. Altimeter data show 8 to 10 ft seas N of the ITCZ to 20N W of 100W. Trades will gradually diminish over the next couple days as the ridge weakens. The swell event will gradually decay through Mon. $$ GR