000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160912 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Mar 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure behind a cold front in the western Gulf of Mexico will support strong northerly winds through the Chivela Pass and minimal gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, peaking around 40 kt early in the morning. Winds will continue to pulse to gale force, mainly at night, through Wed night. With the first pulse of high winds, seas will quickly build to 13-14 ft this morning. The resultant north to northeast swell will propagate downstream away from the Gulf of Tehuantepec to near 100W through Wed. Gale Warning: A strong cold front will reach the NW part of the discussion area this weekend. Associated NW swell will arrive first this afternoon, followed strong southerly winds in the evening, becoming minimal gale force Sun evening as the front enters the area. Gale force winds are possible ahead of the front through early Mon. NW swell will build to 17 ft by Mon night, then continue to propagate across the waters W of 110W through Wed night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 07N83W to 05N91W. The ITCZ continues from 05N91W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong showers are from 04N to 07N between 115W and 121W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gulf of California: High pressure across the U.S. Great Basin will weaken and shift eastward today, and winds will diminish throughout, with the wind-driven seas subsiding. Gentle to moderate NW winds off Baja California will persist through early next week. Large NW swell will arrive Tue night through Wed night, building seas to 8 to 11 ft. NW winds will increase at that time as well as the pressure gradient tightens. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: High pres across Central America from the western Caribbean will continue to support strong pulsing NE winds in the Gulf of Papagayo the next several days, peaking at near gale force early Sun. Seas will build to around 10-11 ft. Gulf of Panama: Fresh northerly winds will prevail this morning, with other pulses of fresh to strong winds anticipated tonight and again Sun night into early Mon. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate NE to E winds along with 5 to 7 ft seas will prevail through Wed night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the gale warning in the Open Pacific NW Waters. A broad ridge extends SE from near 32N132W to just beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ supports moderate to fresh trade winds S of 20N. Altimeter data shows 8 to 9 ft seas N of the ITCZ to 20N W of 100W. Trades will gradually diminish over the next couple days as the ridge weakens. The swell will gradually decay through the weekend as the winds also diminish. $$ Mundell