000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160206 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Mar 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will continue moving across the western Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Campeche. Strong high pressure building southward behind the front is beginning to support strengthening northerly winds through the Chivela Pass which have increased to fresh to near gale force across the immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will continue to increase to minimal gale force in the next few hours, peaking around 40 kt late tonight into early Sat. Northerly winds will continue to pulse to gale force, mainly at night into the early morning hours, through Wed night. Seas will quickly build with the first pulse of gale force winds, reaching 14 ft by early Sat. The resultant north to northeast swell will propagate downstream away from the Gulf of Tehuantepec to near 100W through the middle of next week. Open Pacific NW Waters Gale Warning: A strong cold front will approach the NW corner of the forecast region this weekend. Associated NW swell will arrive first by Sat afternoon, then fresh to strong winds Sat evening, then minimal gale force southerly winds by Sun evening as the front enters at 30N140W. The minimal gale force winds are possible ahead of the front through early Mon, diminishing into the early part of next week. The NW swell will build to 17 ft by Mon night. This swell will continue to propagate across the waters W of 110W through Wed night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 08N85W to 05N91W. The ITCZ continues from 05N91W to 05N100W to 05N120W to 04N129W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 04N to 07N between 87W and 91W, within 90 nm N of the ITCZ between 118W and 130W, and also within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 134W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gulf of California: Strong high pressure across the U.S. Great Basin, with the associated pressure gradient supports strong NW to N winds across the central Gulf of California, while moderate to fresh NW winds prevail elsewhere across the Gulf. Winds will diminish through the night, while seas currently up to 7 ft also subside. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds prevail off Baja California this evening, while seas in NW swell of 5 to 8 ft are subsiding. Gentle to moderate winds will continue through early next week. A new set of NW swell will arrive Tue night through Wed night building seas to 8 to 11 ft. Northwest winds will increase to fresh to locally strong at that time as well as the local pressure gradient tightens. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fairly strong high pressure ridging N of the western Caribbean and Central America will continue to support fresh to strong pulsing NE winds through the next several days, peaking at near gale force Sat night into early Sun. Seas will build to 10 ft during the strongest winds. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh northerly winds will increase briefly to fresh to strong near the Azuero Peninsula tonight, with another pulse of fresh to strong winds anticipated Sat night through early Sun, and again Sun night into early Mon. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate NE to E winds along with 5 to 7 ft seas will prevail through Wed night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the gale warning in the Open Pacific NW Waters. A broad ridge extends SE from near 32N132W to just beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ supports moderate to fresh trade winds S of 25N. Earlier altimeter data showed 8 to 10 ft seas in mixed NE wind waves and NW swell N of the ITCZ to 22N and W of 100W. Trades will diminish slightly over the next couple days as the ridge gradually weakens. The swell will gradually decay through the weekend as the winds also diminish. $$ Lewitsky