000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142206 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Mar 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N85W TO NEAR 06N91W. The ITCZ continues from 06N91W to 06N100W TO 02N118W to beyond 03.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen from 05N to 07N between 86W and 97W. Scattered strong convection is within 150 nm of the ITCZ between 128W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: Strong high pressure is building across the Great Basin today, with associated pressure gradient supporting fresh to strong northwest winds across the northern Gulf of California, while fresh northerly winds prevail elsewhere across the Gulf. Strong NW winds will spread southward across most of the Gulf this evening through tonight, with peak winds near 30 kt expected across central portions overnight. Seas are expected to build to 6 to 9 ft tonight through Fri morning, particularly S of 27N. Winds will diminish to 20 kt or less by early Sat morning, with seas less than 8 ft. A ridge centered offshore of California dominates the offshore waters off Baja California. Afternoon scatterometer data indicated mainly fresh northerly winds offshore Baja California Norte, while moderate north to northeast were west of Baja California Sur. Seas of 8 to 12 ft in NW swell are noted across the area to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are forecast to gradually subside to 8 to 9 ft by early Fri morning, and to 5 to 7 ft by early Sat morning. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Elsewhere southeast of Las Tres Marias, moderate west to northwest winds prevail this afternoon, becoming southerly across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds across this region will weaken slightly late tonight into Friday, before the next strong gap wind event is expected to impact the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. A cold front moving into the northwest Gulf of Mexico this afternoon will reach the western Bay of Campeche Friday afternoon and evening, and allow northerly winds to blast through the Chivela Pass Friday evening and night. Winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will increase to around 30 kt overnight Friday, and then briefly to gale force early Sat morning, before diminishing slightly by late Sat morning to around 30 kt. Gale force winds to near 40 kt will then increase across the Tehuantepec region Sat evening and night then diminish to near 30 kt Sunday evening. Seas will quickly build with the first pulse of strong north winds, reaching 10-11 ft by Saturday morning. The resultant north to northeast swell will propagate downstream and well away from the Gulf of Tehuantepec through late Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fairly strong high pressure ridging north of the western Caribbean and Central America will continue to support fresh to strong northeast winds pulsing across the Gulf of Papagayo through the upcoming weekend and into early next week, increasing to 25-30 kt Sat night and Sun night. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds prevail across the Gulf of Panama this afternoon, and will increase to fresh winds tonight into early Fri then diminish back to moderate speeds on Fri afternoon. This pulsing pattern will continue through the weekend and into early next week. Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds along with seas in the general range of 5 to 7 ft will continue elsewhere across the waters east of 90W through Mon night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge extends SE across the northern forecast waters, from a 1030 mb high near 37.5N129W to just beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports and area of fresh to locally strong trade winds, mainly south of 25N and west of 112W. Seas across this region are running 9 to 11 ft in mixed NE wind waves and NW swell. The trades will diminish to 20 kt or less on Fri as the ridge begins to weaken, and continue through Sat. Long-period northwest swell persists over much of the region west of 105W. The northwest swell will continue to propagate southward across much of the region west of 98W by late Fri while gradually decaying. A strong cold front is forecast to approach to the NW corner of the forecast region by Sun. Strong to near gale force winds are expected ahead of the front with seas building to 12 or 13 ft in long period NW swell. $$ Stripling