000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141524
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1326 UTC Thu Mar 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from near the border of Costa Rica and Panama 
to 06N94W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis continues 
from 06N94W to 02N120W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is seen within 45 nm S of the trough/ITCZ between 86W 
and 98W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 
60 nm N of the ITCZ between 128W and 135W. Similar convection is 
also noted from 04.5N to 06.5N W of 137W. As it is normal for 
this time of the year, a second ITCZ is analyzed S of the 
Equator.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  

Gulf of California: Strong high pressure will build over the 
Great Basin today and support fresh to strong northwest winds 
across the Gulf of California beginning this afternoon. These 
winds will spread across the waters S of 30N by this evening. 
Seas are forecast to build to 8 to 9 ft on Fri, particularly S 
of 27N. Winds will diminish to 20 kt or less by early Sat 
morning, with seas less than 8 ft.

A ridge dominates the offshore waters off Baja California. The
most recent scatterometer data indicated mainly fresh northwest 
winds offshore Baja California Norte, while moderate north to 
northeast were west of Baja California Sur. Seas of 8 to 11 ft
in NW swell are noted across the area to beyond the Revillagigedo
Islands. Seas are forecast to gradually subside to 8 to 9 ft by
early Fri morning, and to 5 to 7 ft by early Sat morning.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Based on latest run of the model, the next 
gale force gap wind event to impact the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
region is forecast to begin Sat evening as strong high pressure 
builds southward over eastern Mexico along the eastern slopes of 
the Sierra Madre mountains in the wake of a strong cold front 
that will move across the Gulf of Mexico. Strong to near gale
force winds will begin to funnel through the Chivela Pass by Fri
evening. Seas will quickly build with these winds, with resultant
northeast swell forecast by Wave model guidance to propagate 
well away from the Gulf of Tehuantepec through late Sun. Gale
conditions are forecast to persist through Sun morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fairly strong high pressure ridging north of 
the area will continue to support fresh to strong northeast winds
pulsing across the Gulf of Papagayo through the upcoming weekend
and into early next week. Winds are expected to increase to 20 to
30 kt Sat night through Sun night. The strongest winds will 
occur during the overnight and early morning hours with the 
assistance of nocturnal drainage flow. 

Gulf of Panama: Ongoing fresh to strong north to northeast winds
through the Gulf of Panama will diminish to moderate speeds this
afternoon, then increase to fresh winds tonight into early Fri 
and diminish back to moderate speeds on Fri afternoon. These 
winds will pulse to moderate to fresh speeds through the weekend,
then increase back to fresh to strong early next week. 

Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds along with seas in 
the general range of 5 to 7 ft will continue elsewhere through 
Mon night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A ridge extends SE across the northern forecast waters to near
the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports
and area of fresh to locally strong trade winds, mainly from 08N
to 13N W of 130W, and from 10N to 16N between 120W and 130W. An
earlier altimeter pass indicated seas to 12 ft within these
winds. The trades will diminish to 20 kt or less on Fri as the 
ridge begins to weaken. Long-period northwest swell persists 
over much of the region west of 105W. The northwest swell will 
continue to propagate southward across much of the region west of
98W by late Fri while gradually decaying.

A strong cold front is forecast to approach to the NW corner of 
the forecast region by Sun. Strong to near gale force winds are
expected ahead of the front with seas building to 12 or 13 ft in
long period NW swell. 

$$
GR