000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132014 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Mar 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from Costa Rica near 08N83W to 04N96W. The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) continues from 04N96W to 01N120W to 01N130W to beyond 02N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 90 nm south of the trough between 96W and 90W, and within 180 nm north of the ITCZ to the west of 134W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Afternoon scatterometer data showed fresh northwest winds along the coast of Baja California Norte in the wake of a cold front, with moderate northerly winds ahead of the front. Large northwest swell of 10 to 15 ft is arriving behind the front, with 8 to 11 ft southward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Hazardous surf conditions continue along the coast of Baja California. For the forecast, the cold front described above will move southward tonight into the Baja California Sur and southern Gulf of California waters while weakening through early Thu. Strong high pressure will build over the Great Basin on Thu and support fresh to strong northwest winds across the Gulf of California beginning on Thu evening, diminishing during the weekend. Farther south, near gale force winds will develop late Fri across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, then strengthen to gale force early Sat through early Mon as high pressure builds behind a strong cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A modest ridge north of the area will continue to support fresh to strong northeast winds pulsing across the Gulf of Papagayo through the weekend into early next week. The strongest winds to near gale force will occur during the overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of nocturnal drainage flow. Elsewhere, ongoing fresh to strong north to northeast winds through the Gulf of Panama will diminish slightly and pulse to moderate to fresh speeds through the weekend, then increase back to fresh to strong early next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds with mixed swell will persist elsewhere through Mon night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong high pressure ridge dominates from northwest to southeast across the waters. Afternoon scatterometer data and ship observations revealed fresh to locally strong northeast trade winds south of 20N and north of the ITCZ. These winds are expected to diminish to moderate to fresh speeds tonight as the pressure gradient relaxes a bit with high pressure slightly weakening north of the region. Long period northwest swell persists over much of the region west of 105W, and an earlier altimeter pass indicated seas to 13 ft within a likely area of strong winds near 10N125W. The northwest swell will continue to propagate southward across much of the region west of 100W by late Thu while gradually decaying. Looking ahead, the swell will continue decaying through Sat night with significant wave heights subsiding to 8 ft or less west of 120W. Further east, 8 to 9 ft seas will persist through Sun in mixed northwest and southwest swell with some shorter period northeast wind waves as well. A strong cold front approaching from the northwest on Sun will be preceded by strong to near gale south to southwest winds through Sun night north of 26N. Associated long period northwest swell will begin impacting this region Sun with seas to 12 ft near 30N140W by Sun night, then building to 18 ft near 28N140W by Mon night. $$ Lewitsky