000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131550 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1550 UTC Wed Mar 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from Costa Rica near 08N83W to 04N95W. The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) continues from 04N95W to 01.5N115W to 01.5N130W to beyond 02.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 180 nm south of the trough between 86W and 89W and within 180 nm north of the ITCZ west of 134W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Overnight scatterometer data showed fresh northwest winds along the southern coast of Baja California Sur in the wake of a dissipated cold front. Another cold front extends from southern California across Baja California Norte to 29N120W. Behind the front, fresh northwest winds and increased northwest swell will impact the waters off Baja California Norte today. Earlier altimeter data indicated wave heights in the range of 11 to 14 ft in the offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia, and 8 to 12 ft southward past the Revillagigedo Islands. Hazardous surf conditions continue along the coast of Baja California. For the forecast, the cold front described above will move across the waters off Baja California Norte today, then weaken over the southern Gulf of California and Baja California Sur tonight into early Thu. Strong high pressure will build over the Great Basin on Thu and support fresh to strong northwest winds across the Gulf of California beginning on Thu evening. Farther south, near gale force winds will develop late Fri across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, then strengthen to gale force early Sat through Sun night as high pressure builds behind a strong cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A modest ridge north of the area will continue to support fresh to strong northeast winds pulsing across the Gulf of Papagayo through the weekend. The strongest winds to near gale force will occur during the overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of nocturnal drainage flow. Elsewhere, ongoing fresh to strong north to northeast winds through the Gulf of Panama will diminish slightly and pulse to moderate to fresh speeds through the weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds with mixed swell will persist elsewhere through Sun night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong high pressure ridge is building east-southeastward across the waters in the wake of a dissipated cold front. Overnight scatterometer data and recent ship observations revealed fresh to locally strong northeast trade winds south of 20N. These winds are expected to diminish to moderate to fresh speeds by tonight as the pressure gradient relaxes a bit with high pressure slightly weakening north of the region. Long period northwest swell persists over much of the region west of 110W, and an earlier altimeter pass indicated seas to 13 ft within a likely area of strong winds near 10N130W. The northwest swell will continue to propagate southward across much of the region west of 100W by late Thu while gradually decaying. Looking ahead, the swell will continue decaying through Sat night with significant wave heights subsiding to 8 ft or less west of 120W. Further east, 8 to 9 ft seas will persist through Sun in mixed northwest and southwest swell with some shorter period northeast wind waves as well. A strong cold front approaching from the northwest on Sun will be preceded by strong to near gale south to southwest winds through Sun night north of 26N. Associated long period northwest swell will begin impacting this region Sun with seas to 12 ft near 30N140W by Sun night. $$ Reinhart/Stripling