000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111501 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1505 UTC Mon Mar 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning: Low pressure west of Guadalupe Island will move across the offshore waters off Baja California Norte and through the northern Gulf of California through Tue. Gale force winds are expected to develop this afternoon into tonight over the waters off Baja California Norte as the low moves east across the area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 06N77W to 05N81W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 06N84W to 4.5N90W to 05N100W to 03N115W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm north of the ITCZ between 105W and 115W, and also between 130W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the developing gale force low west of Guadalupe Island. Overnight scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh winds associated with this developing system. The associated cold front will move south across the waters through Tue with fresh to strong NW winds and increasing long period NW swell behind the front. As the low crosses Baja California and the northern Gulf of California on Tue, fresh to locally strong SW to W winds are expected ahead of the low. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are also expected over the waters between Las Marias Islands and Los Cabos following frontal passage later on Tue. Large, long period NW swell will propagate across the forecast waters in the wake of the cold front. This swell event will reach the Revillagigedo Islands by mid week, creating potentially hazardous surf conditions along the coast of Baja California. Looking ahead, high pressure building over the Great Basin will support strong NW winds across the Gulf of California by late Thu. Farther south, a cold front moving through the western Gulf of Mexico will result in near gale force gap winds through the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late Fri and Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A recent ship observation near the coast of Nicaragua supported strong NE winds on the northern edge of the Gulf of Papagayo gap wind plume. A fairly tight pressure gradient over Central America and the Caribbean Sea will continue to support fresh to near gale force NE winds pulsing through the Gulf of Papagayo through Wed night. Winds will be strongest during the overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of nocturnal drainage flow. Expect seas building to 10 ft downstream associated with the gap wind plume. These winds will diminish slightly late in the week. Fresh to strong N to NE gap winds will pulse through the Gulf of Panama mainly at night through Tue night. Afterward, moderate to fresh winds will pulse over the area through late week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds with mixed swell will persist through late week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge is building across the waters in the wake of the previously described low and cold front. Overnight scatterometer data supported a large area of fresh to strong N to NE winds over the waters roughly north of 15N and west of 125W. Earlier altimeter data supported seas to 15 ft over the outer waters north of 20N west of 135W. As low pressure deepens over the waters off Baja California Norte, a secondary surge of fresh to strong N winds will occur west of the low center behind the front. Further south, the building ridge will support an expanding area of fresh to strong trade winds between 05N and 20N beginning Tue through mid week. Seas in this region will build to 11 ft with a mix of longer period NW swell and shorter period NE wind waves. The large NW swell will gradually decay as it moves through the region, but seas of 8 to 10 ft will dominate the waters west of 110W through late week. $$ Reinhart/Christensen