000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110930 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 720 UTC Mon Mar 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1012 mb low pressure is analyzed near 28N121W with a cold front extending from the low to near 21N130W. The low pressure is forecast to move eastward toward Baja California Norte today while deepening. As a result, gale force winds are expected within 45 to 60 nm in the SW semicircle of the low center from early this afternoon through tonight as it crosses the offshore waters off Baja California Norte. The associated cold front will also affect the area. Fresh to strong southerly winds are forecast within about 60 nm ahead of the front. The low pressure will move across Baja California into the Gulf of California by Tue morning while weakening. A tight pressure gradient between the low and high pressure behind it will maintain a large area of fresh to strong northerly winds over the waters N of 20N through Tue. Currently, scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong northerly winds N of 20N W of 130W where seas are in the 10 to 17 ft range based on altimeter data. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 05N77W to 04N90W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 04N90W to 03N120W to 02N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 05N between 135W AND 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: On Tue, the low pressure previously mentioned in the Special Features section will move across the northern Gulf of California. Fresh to locally strong SW to W winds are expected across parts of Baja California peninsula, and the Gulf of California. Due to this weather pattern, fresh to locally strong northerly winds are also expected over the waters between Las Marias Islands and Los Cabos by late Tue. Marine conditions will deteriorate across the offshore waters W of Baja California as a low pressure moves across the region today through early Tue morning. Please, see Special Features section for details. Large, long period NW swell will propagate across the forecast waters in the wake of the above mentioned low pressure and cold front. This swell event will reach the Revillagigedo Islands by mid week, presenting hazardous surface conditions along the Baja California coast. Looking ahead, high pressure building over the Great Basin will support strong winds across the Gulf of California by late Thu. Farther south, a cold front moving through the western Gulf of Mexico will possibly bring gale-force gap winds to the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late Fri, persisting through Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: A fairly tight pressure gradient over Central America and the Caribbean Sea will continue to support strong to near gale force winds across the Gulf of Papagayo, and a few hundred miles downstream into the Pacific Ocean through Wed night. Winds will be strongest during the overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow. Expect building seas of 8 to 10 ft. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to strong N to NE gap winds will also pulse through the Gulf of Panama mainly at night through Tue night. Afterward, mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail. Gentle to moderate winds with a broad mix of swell will persist elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... As a strong ridge builds across the forecast region in the wake of the aforementioned low/front, expect a large area of fresh to strong northerly winds N of 20N through Tue. In addition, the ridge will support an expanding area of fresh to strong trade winds farther south, particularly from 07N to 22N W of 120W by Tue night, with seas in that area a mix of NW swell and shorter period NE wind waves by mid week. The large NW swell will gradually decay as it moves through the region, but seas of 8 to 11 ft will dominate the waters west of 110W going into mid week. $$ GR