000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101555 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Mar 10 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1400 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 02N85W to 03N96W to 02N120W to 02N138W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09S to 05N W of 121W. A second ITCZ extends from 07S86W to 07S90W to 04S96W to 02S106W to 03S119W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 01S to 04S between 101W and 107W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: A weak surface trough crossing the northern Gulf will support fresh to strong winds N of 29N this evening through early Mon. A low pressure will drag a weakening cold front across the northern Gulf on Mon night. Strong high pressure building behind the cold front will support a second round of fresh to strong winds in the gulf N of 29N, which will continue through Tue morning. The low will continue to move E and merge with another area of low pressure that will build across central Mexico. A tight pressure gradient between the low inland Mexico and the ridge to the west will support fresh to strong W to NW winds across the southern gulf and the offshore waters of Jalisco on Tue. A surface trough is forecast to cross the northern Gulf waters on Wed morning briefly supporting fresh to strong winds N of 29N. A strong ridge building over the Great Basin on Thu will support fresh to strong NW winds across the entire gulf through Fri. Surface ridging across the offshore waters W of Baja California will continue to support gentle to moderate NW winds through tonight. A low pressure and associated cold front will move across the area early Mon through early Tue. Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead and behind of the front N of 23N beginning tonight and continuing through Tue night. Long period NW swell associated with this front will support seas to 13 ft that will begin to subside Wed night. The swell will propagate across the offshore waters off Baja California Peninsula and reach the Revillagigedo Islands on Tue, however seas of 12-13 ft will concentrate in the offshores of Baja California Norte. Expect hazardous surf conditions along the coast of Baja California through Thu. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event through the Gulf of Tehuantepec is not expected until Friday night with possible gale force conditions. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: A fairly tight pressure gradient over Central America and the Caribbean Sea will continue to support strong to near gale force winds across the Gulf of Papagayo, and a few hundred miles downstream into the Pacific Ocean through Fri. Winds will be strongest during the overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to locally strong N to NE gap winds are expected mainly at night through Wed morning. Gentle to moderate winds with a broad mix of swell will persist elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong winds will prevail behind a cold front that extends from 31N122W to 22N135W this morning. Long period NW swell associated with the front will support seas to 17 ft N of 20N, which will start to subside Mon morning as the front and a developing low within the front reach the offshore waters of Baja California Norte. However, strong winds will resume N of 20N late Mon morning as a strong high pressure builds across the forecast region in the wake of the front. This second wind and swell episode will diminish Tue morning as the conditions shift to the Baja California Norte offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia. Otherwise, fresh to strong trade winds are forecast through the middle of the week S of 20N W of 120W. Swell in excess of 8 ft covering this region will start to decay on Friday. $$ Ramos