000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100928 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 706 UTC Sun Mar 10 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 05N77W to 04N85W. The ITCZ continues from 04N85W to 03N110W to beyond 02N140W. Isolated moderate convection is within about 120 nm N of the ITCZ axis between 94W and 102W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: A weak low pressure crossing the northern Gulf will bring some increase in winds this evening and tonight. A second and stronger low pressure will move across the northern Gulf by Mon night producing fresh to strong S to SW winds N of 29N, with seas of 3 to 5 ft. On Tue, moderate to fresh W to NW winds will dominate the southern part of the Gulf as the pressure gradient tightens between a ridge across the offshore waters W of Baja California and lower pressures over inland Mexico. Due to this weather pattern, fresh to strong northerly winds are also expected between Las Marias Islands and Los Cabos by late Tue. A third low pressure is forecast to cross the northern Gulf on Wed, producing again fresh to strong winds. A ridge prevails across the offshore waters W of Baja California supporting moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds. A low pressure and associated cold front will move across the area tonight into Mon. Fresh to strong winds, and a new set of large long-period NW swell will be associated with these features. Fresh to strong winds and building seas of 8 to 12 ft will affect the waters N of Punta Eugenia Mon and Mon night. This swell event will continue to propagate across the offshore waters off Baja California Peninsula reaching the Revillagigedo Islands on Tue. As a result, hazardous surf conditions are possible early this week along the coast of Baja California. Looking ahead, the next strong gap wind event through the Gulf of Tehuantepec is not expected until late in the week. It appears to be another gale force wind event. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: A fairly tight pressure gradient over Central America and the Caribbean Sea will continue to support strong to near gale force winds across the Gulf of Papagayo, and a few hundred miles downstream into the Pacific Ocean through Thu. Winds will be strongest during the overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to locally strong N to NE gap winds are expected mainly at night through most of the forecast period. Gentle to moderate winds with a broad mix of swell will persist elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front enters the forecast area near 30N125W, then continues SW to near 23N135W. Strong northerly winds, an a new set of large, long period NW swell follow the front, forecast to reach the offshore waters W of Baja California tonight into Mon. As a strong ridge builds across the forecast region in the wake of the front, expect a large area of fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas of up to 15 or 16 ft particularly N of 20N and W of 125W. Winds north of 20N will diminish through mid week, but the ridge will support an expanding area of fresh to strong trade winds farther south, mainly from 8N to 18N W of 115W by Tue night. The long period NW swell will decay somewhat as it propagates southeast across the forecast waters early this week, but swell in excess of 8 ft will cover the entire region west of 110W by mid week. $$ GR