000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100203
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
150 UTC Sun Mar 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 06N77W
to 06N85W. The ITCZ continues from 06N85W to beyond 03N140W. 
Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms are active within 45
nm either side the ITCZ axis between 93W and 98W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  

A earlier scatterometer pass indicated 15 to 20 kt winds along 
the coast of Baja California from 28N to 30N, on the eastern end 
of a ridge extending west to east along 27N. A few showers may 
still be possible over Baja California Norte and the northern 
Gulf of California related to a persist southern stream jet over 
the region. Elsewhere, fair skies, gentle to moderate breezes and
moderate seas are noted in the offshore waters of Mexico.

For the forecast, the weak ridge along 27N through Baja 
California will dissipate through tonight ahead of a cold front 
moving into area. Low pressure will form along the front just 
west of Guadalupe Island late Sun, then move across Baja 
California Norte into the northern Gulf of California through 
Tue, bringing fresh to strong winds to the region, to include
fresh to strong westerly gap winds into the northern Gulf of
California near 30N late Sun.

Large, long period NW swell will follow the front and reach 
south to the Revillagigedo Islands by Tue. A reinforcing front 
will follow across Baja California and Gulf of California Tue 
night. Winds start to diminish Wed, but the large NW swell will 
persist W of 105W through at least Thu over open waters. Hazard
surf conditions are possible along the entire coast of Baja
California early next week as a result.

Looking ahead, the next strong gap wind event through the Gulf of
Tehuantepec is not expected until late in the week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A fairly tight pressure gradient still dominates Central America,
although the ridging well north of the region contributing to the
tight gradient has been drifting more to the east. This is
allowing a subtle and gradual decrease in the gradient and the
related gap winds. Moderate to fresh winds and strong gusts are 
still being reported at Liberia, Costa Rica, near the Gulf of 
Papagayo. But these winds are trending lower than they have been 
over the past couple of days. While no recent wind data is 
available in the Gulf of Papagayo, recent altimeter passes show
seas indicative of strong gap winds. Farther east, an earlier  
scatterometer pass showed only moderate to fresh northerly gap 
winds through the Gulf of Panama. This pass was early into a 
diurnal minimum, and stronger gap winds are possibly ongoing into
the overnight hours, from the Canal area to south of the Azuero 
peninsula.

For the forecast, the gradient will tight enough to still support fresh
to near gale force NE winds through Thu through the Gulf of 
Papagayo and a few hundred miles downstream into the Pacific. 
Winds will be strongest during the overnight and early morning 
hours with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow. Fresh 
to strong N to NE gap winds will also pulse through the Gulf of 
Panama to just S of the Azuero peninsula through Sun, and will 
pulse again Tue through Thu. Gentle to moderate winds with a 
broad mix of swell will persist elsewhere. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A ridge reaches from 1034 mb high pressure well northwest of the
area near 34N149W, through 30N140W to 27N130W, then eastward to 
Baja California. A cold front is approaching the waters east of 
130W, and will erode the ridge in that region through tonight as 
it swings southeastward. The ridging west of 130W is supporting 
fresh to strong trade winds farther south into the tropics, with 
8 to 10 ft with a component of NW swell. Scatterometer data and 
ship observations show strong northerly winds following the 
front. 

For the forecast, the strong northerly winds along with large,
long period NW swell will follow the front, overtaking most of
the area west of 125W through late Sun. Winds north of 20N will
diminish through mid week as ridging builds in the wake of the 
front, but the ridge will support an expanding area of fresh to 
strong trade winds farther south. The NW swell will decay 
somewhat through mid week, but seas in excess of 8 ft will
dominate the open waters west of 105W by Thu.

Farther east, fresh winds originating from Central American gap
areas are reaching as far west as 95W, but are diminishing.

$$
Christensen