000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091606 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Mar 9 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 06N77W to 07N85W. The ITCZ continues from 07N85W to 03N100W to 03N120W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N to 06N between 90W and 100W and between 121W and 134W. Similar convection is from 02N to 10N W of 135W. A second active ITCZ is analyzed S of the Equator from 05S87W to 05S100W to 01S108W to 01S130W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 150 nm either side of its axis. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: A frontal trough crossing the northern part of the Gulf will bring fresh to strong S to SW winds N of 30N Sun and Sun night. A low pressure system will approach from the W by Mon afternoon, moving across the northern Gulf Mon night into Tue producing mainly fresh winds. Then, on Wed morning, the remnants of a front approaching from from the NW will support fresh to strong winds N of 29N. Variable light to gentle winds will prevail through Thu morning before high pressure sets N of the area supporting northerly moderate to fresh winds through Thu. Low pressure will develop along Mexico on Thu afternoon and the pressure gradient will tighten, thus supporting NW fresh to strong winds along the gulf through Fri. A ridge prevails W of the Baja California offshores supporting moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds. A cold front will reach the area Sun night into Mon. Enhanced NW winds and large long- period NW swell will follow the front. Seas of 8 to 11 ft will affect the waters N of Punta Eugenia early on Mon morning. This swell event will continue to propagate across the offshore waters off Baja California Peninsula reaching the Revillagigedo Islands on Tue. As a result, hazardous surf conditions are possible early next week along the coast of Baja California. Elsewhere, moderate breezes and seas will persist over the offshore waters of Mexico through Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE winds prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo, and downwind to near 91W. Associated downstream seas are in the 8 to 11 ft range according to the latest altimeter pass. While the pressure gradient over northern Central America has relaxed a little due to high pressure farther north shifting eastward, conditions are still in place to support persistent strong to near gale force winds across the Gulf of Papagayo and off the coast of Nicaragua through Thu. Winds will be strongest during the overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to strong N to NE gap winds will also pulse through the Gulf of Panama and just S of the Azuero peninsula through Sun. Fresh to strong winds will pulse again Tue through Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge is building across the northern forecast waters, and extends from 30N140W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports an area of fresh to locally strong trade winds mainly from 04N to 15N W of 130W based on the latest scatterometer data. A recent altimeter pass supported seas to 10 ft in the area of fresh winds, with an added component of longer period NW swell. The aerial extent of the trades will increase tonight into Tue, covering mainly the waters from 08N to 20N W of 120W. A strong cold front approaching the region from the northwest will move into the waters of the discussion area this afternoon. The front will reach from southern California to 30N121W to 22N130W Sun afternoon, and dissipate in the offshores of Baja California Sur Mon night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front tonight into Mon night across the waters N of 20N. NW swell will support seas up to 16 ft across the waters north of 20N during this period. This longer period NW swell will decay somewhat as it moves southeast, but swell in excess of 8 ft will cover the entire region west of 110W by mid week. $$ NR