000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090931 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 604 UTC Sat Mar 9 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 06N77W to 06N86W. The ITCZ continues from 06N86W to 02N120W to beyond 04N140W. Isolated moderate convection is noted within about 120 nm N of the ITCZ axis between 96W and 112W. Similar convection is also near 05N125W. A second and active ITCZ is analyzed S of the Equator. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: A frontal trough crossing the northern part of the Gulf will bring fresh to strong S to SW winds N of 30N Sun and Sun night. Then, a low pressure system will approach from the W by late Mon, moving across the northern Gulf Mon night into Tue producing mainly fresh winds. Mainly gentle to moderate northerly winds will prevail over the remainder of the Gulf during the next several days. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California producing moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds. A cold front will reach the area Sun night into Mon. Enhanced NW winds and large long-period NW swell will follow the front. Seas of 8 to 11 ft will affect the waters N of Punta Eugenia early on Mon morning. This swell event will continue to propagate across the offshore waters off Baja California Peninsula reaching the Revillagigedo Islands on Tue. Hazardous surf conditions are possible early next week along the coast of Baja California as a result. Looking ahead, another cold front will move southward across Baja California and the adjacent waters Wed and Wed night. Elsewhere, moderate breezes and seas will persist over the offshore waters of Mexico through mid week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong NE winds through the Gulf of Papagayo, and downwind to near 90W. Associated downstream seas are in the 8 to 10 ft range. While the pressure gradient over northern Central America has relaxed a little due to high pressure farther north shifting eastward, conditions are still in place to support persistent strong to near gale force winds across the Gulf of Papagayo and off the coast of Nicaragua through mid week. Winds will be strongest during the overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to strong N to NE gap winds will also pulse through the Gulf of Panama and just S of the Azuero peninsula through mid week, mainly at night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge is building across the northern forecast waters, and extends from 30N140W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports an area of fresh to locally strong trade winds mainly from 08N to 15N W of 135W based on the latest scatterometer data. A recent altimeter pass supported seas to 9 ft in the area of fresh winds, with an added component of longer period NW swell. The aerial extent of the trades will increase tonight into Sun, covering mainly the waters from 08N to 20N W of 130W by Sun night. A strong cold front approaching the region from the northwest will move into the waters of the discussion area today. The front will reach from southern California to 23N135W by tonight, then move east of the area through Sun. Strong northerly winds will follow the front Sat night into Sun, along with reinforcing NW swell of up to 16 ft across the waters north of 20N into early next week. This longer period NW swell will decay somewhat as it moves southeast early next week, but swell in excess of 8 ft will cover the entire region west of 110W by mid week. In addition, a ridge will again build over the waters north of 20N in the wake of the front, supporting fresh to strong NE trade winds across the deep tropics south of 15N and west of 120W through mid week. Looking ahead, another cold front will move southward across the waters north of 25N Wed and Wed night with moderate to fresh N to NE winds developing behind the front. $$ GR