000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081006 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Mar 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: Earlier observations from Liberia, Costa Rica showed sustained winds to 30 kt with gusts to 50 kt. This was consistent with model initializations showing winds to near gale force in the Gulf of Papagayo. Gale-force winds are forecast until this morning for the Gulf of Papagayo, based on the ongoing trends, and the added impact of drainage flow during the late night and early morning hours. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ FROM 06N88W TO 02N105W TO 03N111W TO 01N116W TO 02N125W TO 01N131W BEYOND 02N140W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 04N TO 06N W OF 138W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM N OF ITCZ W OF 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A stationary front passes from NW Mexico, across the northernmost parts of the Gulf of California, beyond 28N117W in the Pacific Ocean. Deep layer moisture is evident across the central sections of Baja California into the Sonora Desert, and a few embedded showers are possible during the overnight hours. Moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas were noted in earlier scatterometer and altimeter satellite data off the coast of Baja California. The surface pressure gradient in southern Mexico is relaxing, with a weak trough in the western Gulf of Mexico. Strong gap winds will linger in the Gulf of Tehuantepec until this morning, in the aftermath of a prolonged gale event. Earlier altimeter data indicated seas still were reaching 9 feet well downstream of Tehuantepec. The sea heights will be subsiding as the wind speeds diminish. SW gap winds will be present in the northernmost parts of the Gulf of California, N of 30N, to the east of the stationary front. The front will dissipate on Friday morning, allowing the wind speeds to diminish. High pressure, building in the wake of the front to the west of the region, will support fresh to strong NW winds off the coast of Baja California Sur from Friday into Saturday. A second cold front will move into the region on Sunday night. Long period NW swell will follow the front into the waters off Baja California, reaching as far south as the Revillagigedo Islands early next week. Strong SW gap winds will develop to the east of the front in the northern Gulf of California into Monday. Reinforcing swell up to 12 ft will move into the waters off northern Baja California Norte by Tuesday. Hazardous surf conditions are possible early next week along the coast of Baja California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Gale warning. Please read the Special Features section for more details. A strong north-south pressure gradient across Central America is helping to funnel strong to near gale-force NE winds off the coast of Nicaragua. Earlier scatterometer and concurrent altimeter data were showing near gale-force winds with seas to 10 ft as far as 240 nm downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo. Strong to near gale-force gap winds will continue to pulse mainly at night into the early morning through early next week, for the Gulf of Papagayo. Fresh to strong gap winds also will pulse through the Gulf of Panama through Saturday night, and then diminish into early next week. Related plumes of short period NE to E swell will continue to pulse well downstream of the coast of Costa Rica and Nicaragua into early next week, mixing with longer period SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A nearly stationary frontal boundary extends from northern Baja California Norte to 24N124W. The front will dissipate through Fri morning as the upper support lifts out. Gentle to moderate winds follow the front north of 20N, with decaying NW swell of 5 to 7 ft. Another weak cold front moving into the waters north of 25N west of 130W will dissipate through Fri. Modest trade winds persist in the deep tropics, but are enough of a component along with NW swell to support combined seas to 9 ft west of 135W. Trade wind convergence is also supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms along the ITCZ west of 120W. Farther east, fresh winds and short period easterly swell originating from persistent gap winds off Central America are reaching as far west as 110W. For the forecast, weak ridging will build in the wake of the fronts, allowing trade winds to increase farther south west of 130W. Another front will enter the waters north of 20N by Sat, the move E of the area into Baja California by late Sun. Large long period swell will follow the front, bringing seas of 8 to 12 ft over the entire area west of 110W through Tue. High pressure building in the wake of the front will allow fresh to strong trade winds south of 20N west of 120W early next week. $$ mt