000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072206
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Mar 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from Costa Rica at 09N84W to 06N88W. 
The intertropical convergence zone axis begins there and extends 
to 06N88W to 02N120W beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate 
showers and thunderstorms are within 90 nm north of the ITCZ
between 120W and 125W, and within 90 nm north of the ITCZ west of
135W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  

A frontal boundary that had been stalled west of the Baja
California is starting to get mid/upper level support and is 
moving eastward again into Baja California Norte and the Gulf of
California. Deep layer moisture is evident across the central
portions of Baja California into the Sonora Desert, and a few 
embedded showers are possible through the afternoon. Moderate 
winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted in scatterometer and altimeter
satellite data off the coast of Baja California.

Farther south, the pressure gradient over southern Mexico is
relaxing as low pressure and an attendant trough covers the 
Western Gulf of Mexico. Strong gap winds will linger through the
Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight in the aftermath of a prolonged gale
event, but will diminish rapidly through the morning. Recent
altimeter data indicated seas still to 9 ft well downstream of
Tehuantepec, but seas will be subsiding as winds diminish. 

For the forecast, strong SW gap winds will form tonight over the
northern Gulf of California ahead of the weakening cold front 
moving into the region. The front will dissipate through early 
Fri, allowing the winds to diminish. High pressure building in 
the wake of the front west of the region will support fresh NW 
winds off the coast of Baja California Sur Fri and Sat. Looking 
ahead, long period NW swell will enter the waters off Baja 
California by Sun night, reaching as far south as the
Revillagigedo Islands early next week. This may present 
hazardous surf conditions along the Baja California coast by Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A strong north-south pressure gradient across Central America is
helping to funnel strong to near gale NE winds across the Gulf 
of Papagayo and off the coast of Nicaragua. Earlier scatterometer
and concurrent altimeter data showed near gale force winds with
seas to 10 ft as far as 240 nm downstream of the Gulf of
Papagayo.

The strong gap winds will continue to pulse through Papagayo, 
with the strongest winds in the late night- early morning hours. 
This pressure gradient will also produce strong breeze N winds in
the Gulf of Panama for the next several days. Related plumes of 
short period NE to E swell will continue to pulse well downstream
of the coast of Costa Rica and Nicaragua into early next week,
mixing with longer period SW swell. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A mid/upper disturbance off central California is allowing what
was a stalled frontal boundary from northern Baja California 
Norte to 16N135W to move farther east over the waters north of
20N. The front will dissipate through tonight as the upper
support lifts out. Gentle to moderate winds follow the front
north of 20N, with decaying NW swell of 5 to 7 ft. Farther south,
modest trade winds persist in the deep tropics, but are enough of
a component along with NW swell to support combined seas to 9 ft
west of 135W. Trade wind convergence is also supporting clusters
of showers and thunderstorms along the ITCZ west of 120W. 
Farther east, fresh winds and short period easterly swell 
originating from persistent gap winds off Central America are 
reaching as far west as 110W. 

For the forecast, weak ridging will build in the wake of the 
front, allowing trade winds to increase farther south west of
130W. Another front will enter the waters north of 20N by Sat, 
followed by strong NW winds and longer period NW swell.

$$
Christensen