000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070809 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Mar 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong and sharp ridge extending southward across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental in Mexico is supporting a gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region. Winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec are 30-40 kt, with seas peaking around 17 ft just downstream. Gale force winds will diminish by late this morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds will continue to pulse near the coast through Fri morning, diminishing thereafter. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 04N86W to 01N108W to 02N117W to 01N125W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 04N between 118W and 124W, and also from 02N to 04N between 130W and 133W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Please read the Special Features section for more details about the gale warning. Gulf of California: A series of troughs moving eastward across Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California will support fresh SW through early this morning, and then fresh to strong tonight into early Fri. Moderate NW flow offshore of Cabo Corrientes will increase to fresh Fri night through Sat night as the local pressure gradient tightens. Otherwise, a weak pressure pattern will support generally benign weather across the region through the upcoming weekend. By early next week, a large set of NW swell will arrive, first offshore of Baja California Norte, spreading S-SE across the remainder of the waters W of 110W through Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulfs of Fonseca, Papagayo, and Panama: A moderate to strong pressure gradient in the W Caribbean combined with nocturnal drainage flow will support gap wind events across the Gulf of Papagayo and Panama, peaking at around 30 kt through the early morning hours, and then again tonight into early Fri. Seas of 11-12 ft will build downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo. Strong breezes are also possible across the coast of Nicaragua to the Gulf of Fonseca through Mon. NE swell generated by the gap wind event in the Gulf of Panama will propagate SW toward the Galapagos Islands Fri through Sat, with seas building to 5-7 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... NE swell generated by the gap wind events in the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo will spread SW and then W reaching roughly the waters from 03N to 13N between 90W and 110W later today. A weakening stationary front extends from 30N119W to 23N127W. NW swell of 7-9 ft behind the front is decaying and will continue to subside through the day today. High pressure building across the waters north of 20N in the wake of the front will allow trade winds to freshen farther south in the deep tropics west of 130W by 48 hours. Residual NW swell combined with the wind waves will support seas around 8 ft, building to 10 ft through Sun. Otherwise, a weak cold front will drop SE of 30N140W later today, gradually washing out through Sat as the high pressure dominates. Looking ahead, another front will drop into the northern waters this weekend. Large northerly swell will sweep across the waters into early next week, with seas of 8 ft or greater reaching all the way to 110W. Max seas will be in the 13-15 ft range in the N central waters by early Mon. $$ Lewitsky