000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062204
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2140 UTC Wed Mar 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong ridge extending 
southward across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental 
in Mexico is supporting a gap wind event across the Tehuantepec 
region. Winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec have 
reached 30-45 kt per a recent scatterometer pass, with seas
peaking around 19 ft downstream. Gale force winds will persist 
through early Thu morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds will 
continue to pulse near the coast through Fri morning, diminishing
thereafter.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or 
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for 
further details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 04N92W to 
02N120W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate rain showers are evident 
within 90 nm N of the boundary between 102W and 105W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Please read the Special Features section
for more details about the gale warning.

A cold front approaching from the west will move across Baja
California Norte and the northern Gulf of California tonight into
Thu. Strong SW winds will peak ahead of the front tonight in the
northern Gulf of California. The front will dissipate through
Fri, leaving generally benign weather across the region. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulfs of Fonseca, Papagayo, and Panama: A moderate to strong 
pressure gradient in the W Caribbean combined with nocturnal 
drainage flow will support gap wind events across the Gulf of 
Papagayo and Panama. Seas to 11 ft will build downstream of the 
Gulf of Papagayo mixing with longer period NW swell as far west 
of 110W. Strong breezes are also possible across the coast of 
Nicaragua to the Gulf of Fonseca through Mon. NE swell generated
by the gap wind event in the Gulf of Panama will propagate SW 
toward the Galapagos Islands later in the week with seas building
to 5-7 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

NE swell generated by the gap wind events in the Gulfs of 
Tehuantepec and Papagayo will spread SW and then W reaching 
roughly the waters from 03N to 13N between 90W and 110W by Thu.

A cold front extends from 30N120W to 22N127W. A large area of NW
swell covers the waters behind the front. The front will weaken 
during the next 48 hours, while the area of 8 ft or greater seas 
gradually shrinks.

By 48 hours, trades will freshen across the W central waters. 
Residual NW swell combined with the wind waves will support seas 
around 8 ft. Trades will continue to strengthen, reaching fresh 
to strong by early in the weekend, which will build combined 
seas to 8-10 ft.

$$
Christensen