000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061539 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Mar 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong ridge extending southward across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental in Mexico is supporting a gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region. Winds funneling through the Chivela Pass have reached 30- 45 kt per a recent scatterometer pass. Seas will peak around 18 to 19 ft today. Gale force winds will persist through early Thu morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds will continue to pulse near the coast through Fri morning, diminishing thereafter. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 04N88W to 01N118W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate rain showers are evident within 90 nm N of the boundary between 97W and 107W. A second ITCZ is analyzed S of the Equator. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Please read the Special Features section for more details about the gale warning. Gulf of California: Developing low pressure over the U.S. Great Basin will support nocturnal pulsing of fresh to locally strong SW to W in the northern Gulf of California Thu night and Fri night. Generally benign marine conditions are expected elsewhere across the Gulf through Sat night. Weak high pressure will dominate the offshore forecast waters off Baja California. By early Thu, a weakening cold front will reach Baja California Norte with minimal impacts. Conditions should remain benign W of Baja California for the next several days. No large long-period swell is anticipated to affect the region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulfs of Fonseca, Papagayo, and Panama: A moderate to strong pressure gradient in the W Caribbean combined with nocturnal drainage flow will support gap wind events across the Gulf of Papagayo and Panama. Strong to near gale force winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 91W, with seas building to 12 ft, and across the Gulf of Panama and downwind to near 04.5N81W with seas of 8-10 ft by early Thu. Strong breeze conditions are also likely in the Gulf of Fonseca. NE swell generated by the gap wind event in the Gulf of Panama will propagate SW toward the Galapagos Islands later in the week with seas building to 5-7 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... NE swell generated by the gap wind events in the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo will spread SW and then W reaching roughly the waters from 03N to 13N between 90W and 110W by Thu. A cold front extends from 30N123W to 21N132W. A large area of NW swell covers the waters behind the front. The front will weaken during the next 48 hours, while the area of 8 ft or greater seas gradually shrinks. By 48 hours, trades will freshen across the W central waters. Residual NW swell combined with the wind waves will support seas around 8 ft. Trades will continue to strengthen, reaching fresh to strong by early in the weekend, which will build combined seas to 8-10 ft. $$ Mundell