000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060914 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Mar 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong ridge extending southward across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental in Mexico is supporting a gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region. Winds funneling through the Chivela Pass have reached 30-45 kt per a recent scatterometer pass. Seas are in the process of peaking around 18 ft. Gale force winds will persist through early Thu morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse in the immediate Gulf through Fri morning, diminishing thereafter. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 05N88W to 01N110W to 03N130W to 06N140W. A second ITCZ is analyzed S of the Equator. No significant convection is noted. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Please read the Special Features section for more details about the gale warning. Gulf of California: Developing low pressure over the U.S. Great Basin will support nocturnal pulsing of fresh to locally strong SW to W in the northern Gulf of California Thu night and Fri night. Generally tranquil marine conditions are expected elsewhere across the Gulf through at least Sat night. Weak high pressure will dominate the offshore forecast waters off Baja California. By early Thu, a weakening cold front will reach Baja California Norte with minimal impacts. Conditions should remain benign W of Baja California for the next several days. No large long-period swell is anticipated to affect the region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulfs of Fonseca, Papagayo, and Panama: A moderate to strong pressure gradient in the W Caribbean combined with nocturnal drainage flow will support gap wind events across the Gulf of Papagayo and Panama. Strong to near gale force winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 91W, with seas building up to 12 ft, and also across the Gulf of Panama and downwind to near 04.5N81W with seas of 8-10 ft by early Thu. These marine conditions will persist through Thu night, also causing strong breeze conditions in the Gulf of Fonseca. Also, fresh NE swell generated by the strengthening gap wind event in the Gulf of Panama will propagate SW toward the Galapagos Islands later in the week with seas building to 5-7 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... NE swells generated by the gap wind events in the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo will spread SW and then W reaching roughly the waters from 03N to 13N between 90W and 110W by Thu. A cold front extends from 30N128W to 23N140W with an elongated pre-frontal trough from 30N125W to 24N130W to 18N136W. Only a small area of associated fresh to strong winds remains, confined to the waters N of 29N between 123W and 131W. A large area of NW swell of 8 ft or greater, up to 13 ft near 30N130W, covers the rest of the waters behind the pre-frontal trough. The trough will dissipate while the front weakens through the next 48 hours, while the area of swell gradually subsides to less than 8 ft. By 48 hours, trades will freshen across the W central waters and the residual NW swell combined with the wind waves will support seas around 8 ft. Trades will continue to strengthen, reaching fresh to strong by early in the weekend, which will build combined seas to 8-10 ft. $$ Lewitsky