000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052150 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1936 UTC Tue Mar 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure building in E of the Sierra Madre Oriental in Mexico behind a strong cold front is inducing a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds funneling through the Chivela Pass are already reaching gale force with seas to 12 ft. Winds are forecast to peak 40 kt tonight through Wed night and seas will reach near 20 feet early Wed morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details about these gale warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N82W to 05N90W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis continues from 05N90W to 03N110W to 02N120W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near 06N83.5W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N to 05N between 103W and 109W. A second ITCZ is analyzed S of the Equator. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please read the Special Features section for details. Gulf of California: Developing low pressure over the U.S. Great Basin will support nocturnal pulsing of fresh to strong SW to W in the northern Gulf of California Thu night and Fri night. Generally tranquil marine conditions are expected elsewhere across the Gulf through at least Sat night. On Thu, a weakening cold front will reach Baja California Norte with minimal impacts. Conditions should remain benign W of Baja California for the next several days. No large long-period swell is anticipated to affect the region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulfs of Fonseca, Papagayo, and Panama: A moderate pressure gradient in the W Caribbean combined with nocturnal drainage flow will produce enhanced winds in the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama each evening through Sat night. The forcing is strongest through Thu night, also causing strong breeze conditions in the Gulf of Fonseca. Winds should peak around 30 kt in the Gulf of Papagayo Wed and Thu morning with peak seas of 10-12 ft. Winds should peak around 25 kt in the Gulf of Panama Wed, Thu, and Fri mornings with peak seas of around 8 ft. No large long-period swell are expected to impact the area for the next several days. Elsewhere, NE swells generated by the gap wind events in the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo will spread SW and then W reaching roughly the waters from 03N to 14N between 90W and 108W by Thursday afternoon. NE swell generated by a strengthening gap wind event in the Gulf of Panama will propagate SW toward the Galapagos Islands later in the week with seas building to 5-7 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front enters the forecast waters near 30N126W and continues SW to near 21N135. A secondary front follows the front and stretches from 30N132W to 25N140W. Winds associated with these features have diminished below gale force. Currently, fresh to strong W to NW winds dominate the waters N of 26N W of 130W. The front will continue to move eastward across the northern forecast region reaching a position from 30N122W to 21N130W by Wed afternoon. At that time, winds are forecast to diminish to 20 kt or less, but NW swell behind the front will continue to propagate across the area while gradually subsiding. $$ GR