000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050238 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 121 UTC Tue Mar 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Open East Pacific Waters Gale Warning: A pre-frontal trough is identified extending from 30N132W and a cold front extends from 30N134W to 24N140W in association with a 1000 mb low centered at 33N139W. Scattered moderate convection exists north of 27N between the trough and the front. Between the trough and the front, SW winds north of 25N are strong breeze to near gale with frequent gusts to gale force likely, especially in the area of moderate convection. Ship WFLG reported WNW 30 kt and 16 ft seas at 0000 UTC just west of the front. The cold front will steadily progress eastward across our northern waters. Winds will gradually diminish and the gale warning should be lifted by 1800 UTC. Associated maximum NW swell of about 15 ft in our area will propagate southeastward while gradually diminishing. Peak seas should diminish below 12 ft by Tue night and below 8 ft by Thu morning. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure building in E of the Sierra Madre Oriental in Mexico behind a strong Gulf of Mexico cold front will cause the next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning tonight. Strong winds will begin to funnel through the Chivela Pass tonight, reaching gale force by Tue morning and continuing as a gale through Thu morning. It is anticipated that winds will peak at 40-45 kt and seas reach almost 20 feet early Wed morning. This Tehuantepecer should end Fri afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details about these gale warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from 07N83W to 07N88W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis continues from 07N88W to 01N117W to 03N140W. Scattered showers are located within 60 nm of the ITCZ W of 120W. As is normal for this time of the year, a second convectively active ITCZ is analyzed S of the Equator. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please read the Special Features section for details. On Thu, a weakening cold front will reach Baja California Norte with minimal impacts. Conditions should remain quiescent W of Baja California for the next several days. No large long-period swell is anticipated to affect the region. Gulf of California: Developing low pressure over the U.S. Great Basin will support nocturnal pulsing of fresh to strong SW to W in the northern Gulf of California Thu night and Fri night. Generally benign marine conditions are expected elsewhere across the Gulf through at least Sat night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulfs of Fonseca, Papagayo, and Panama: A moderate pressure gradient in the western Caribbean combined with nocturnal drainage flow will produce enhanced winds in the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama each evening through at least Sat night. The forcing is strongest Tue through Thu nights and also causes strong breeze conditions in the Gulf of Fonseca those three evenings. Winds should peak around near gale in the Gulf of Papagayo Wed and Thu morning with peak seas of 10-12 ft. Winds should peak around strong breeze in the Gulf of Panama Wed, Thu, and Fri mornings with peak seas of around 8 ft. No large long- period swell are expected to impact the area for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Marine conditions are beginning to deteriorate N of 25N W of 135W as a low pressure system and associated frontal boundaries affect this region. Please see the Special Features Section for more details on a Gale Warning. Elsewhere, long-period NW swell mixing with tradewind flow is maintaining an area of 8 to 9 ft seas from 05N to 20N between 127W and 135W. These seas will gradually subside to less than 8 ft by early Tue. $$ Landsea