000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031538 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1317 UTC Sun Mar 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The next cold front is expected to reach the NW corner of the forecast area tonight, followed by a second and reinforcing cold front expected to enter the forecast region by Mon afternoon. Fresh to strong winds will be associated with these fronts, forecast to merge by early Tue morning. The associated low pressure will be near 32N140W by Mon morning with strong to near gale force winds likely in the S semicircle of the low center, where frequent gusts to gale force are expected. These gusty winds are forecast to affect mainly the waters N of 27N W of 130W late Mon through Tue. Then, the low is forecast to move NE, and a new set of long period NW swell is expected to invade the NW forecast waters on Mon night with seas of up to 15 ft. Conditions will improve by mid week. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 06N84W to 03N100W to 01N115W to 01N130W 04N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ axis between 85W and 93W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 03N between 100W and 107W. As it is normal for this time of the year, a second and active ITCZ is analyzed S of the Equator. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge will dominate the offshore waters W of Baja California through Wed. The pressure gradient will tighten between the ridge W of Baja California and lower pressure over mainland Mexico tonight resulting in increasing winds through Mon. On Thu, a weakening cold front will reach Baja California Norte with minimal impacts. No large long-period swell is anticipated to affect the region through at least middle of the week. Gulf of California: The remnants of a front approaching Baja California Norte will briefly enhance westerly winds over the northern Gulf of California through the morning. Wed night into Thu, a weakening front will reach Baja California with minimal impacts over the Gulf, except brief fresh to strong SW flow N of 30N Wed night. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over the Gulf of California will lead to only gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf for the next couple days. Gulf of Tehuantepec: A strong cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico should force the next gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region beginning on Tue morning. The Tehuantepecer is forecast to increase to gale force Tue evening through Wed night, then still continuing through at least Thu night. Marine guidance suggests northerly winds in the 30 to 40 kt range. Seas are forecast to peak around 15 ft by Wed morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong winds in the 20-25 kt are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo through Tue, but mainly at night with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow. An increase in the Caribbean pressure gradient will significantly boost winds across the Gulf of Papagayo Tue night through at least Thu night. Strong to near gale conditions are expected. Seas are forecast to peak around 12 ft Thu morning. Gulf of Panama: A weak pressure gradient across Panama will cause only fresh breeze or weaker N winds in the Gulf of Panama until Tue night, when the Caribbean pressure gradient will enhance the N winds in the Gulf through at least Thu night. Seas will build to around 9 ft Thu morning. Elsewhere conditions will remain quiescent through at least Thu night. No large long-period swell are anticipated to impact the waters for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Marine conditions will deteriorate across the NW corner of the forecast area late Mon through Tue. Please, see Special Features Section for details. Long-period NW swell mixing with wind waves due to tradewind flow is keeping an area of 8 to 11 ft roughly from 03N to 20N W of 130W...and from 14N to 20N between 122W and 130W. This swell will gradually subside to less than 8 ft through tonight. $$ GR