000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030819 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Mar 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 07N87W to 01N110W to 01N130W to 03N140W. A trough axis extends from 03.4S96W to 01S104W to 02S114W to 03S118W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 120 nm S of the ITCZ. Similar convection is within 120 nm S of the trough between 102W and 118W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge will dominate the offshore waters W of Baja California through Wed. The pressure gradient will tighten between the ridge W of Baja California and lower pressure over mainland Mexico tonight resulting in increasing winds through Mon. On Thu, a weakening front will reach Baja California with minimal impacts. No large long-period swell is anticipated to impact the region through at least middle of next week. Gulf of California: The remnants of a front approaching Baja California Norte will briefly enhance westerly winds over the northern Gulf of California through the morning. Wed night into Thu, a weakening front will reach Baja California with minimal impacts over the Gulf, except brief fresh to strong SW flow N of 30N Wed night. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over the Gulf of California will lead to only gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf for the next several days. Gulf of Tehuantepec: A strong cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico should force the next gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region beginning on Tue morning. The Tehuantepecer may increase to gale force Tue night through Wed night, then still continuing through at least Thu night. Seas are forecast to peak around 15 ft Wed morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: A moderate pressure gradient across the western Caribbean along with nighttime enhancements of the flow will produce NE strong breeze conditions across the Gulf of Papagayo through the morning hours, weakening this afternoon, then pulsing again overnight into early Mon. An increase in the Caribbean pressure gradient will significantly boost winds across the Gulf of Papagayo Tue night through at least Thu night. Seas are forecast to peak around 12 ft Thu morning. Gulf of Panama: Conditions will remain quiescent in the Gulf of Panama until Tue night, when the Caribbean pressure gradient will enhance the N winds in the Gulf through at least Thu night. Seas will build to around 9 ft Thu morning. Elsewhere conditions will remain quiescent through at least Thu night. No large long-period swell are anticipated to impact the waters for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnants of a frontal boundary reach from Baja California Norte to 26N124W with scattered showers present within 60 nm of the boundary. The remnants will completely wash out through the morning. Long-period NW swell mixing with wind waves due to tradewind flow is keeping an area of 8 to 9 ft roughly from 05N to 18N W of 129W. This swell will gradually subside to less than 8 ft through tonight, then, will rebuild as weak troughing to the NW interacts with high pressure ridging supporting fresh to locally strong winds Mon afternoon before diminishing Mon night. The next cold front is forecast to reach the NW corner of the forecast region late tonight into early Mon along with a pre- frontal trough. Fresh to strong winds will be on both sides of the trough and front. The associated low pressure will be near 32N140W by early Mon morning with strong to near gale force winds likely in the SE quadrant of the low center. These near gale conditions should impact our NW corner on Mon. Then, the low is forecast to move NE, and a new set of long period NW swell is expected to invade the NW forecast waters on Mon night with seas of up to 15 ft. Conditions will improve mid week. $$ Lewitsky