000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030210
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
109 UTC Sun Mar 3 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 07N89W to 
00N115W to 03N140W. Isolated moderate convection is noted S of 
04N between 102W and 107W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  

A ridge will dominate the offshore waters W of Baja California 
through Wed. On Sun, the pressure gradient will tighten between 
the ridge W of Baja California and lower pressure over mainland 
Mexico resulting in increasing winds through Mon. On Thu, a 
weakening front will reach Baja California with minimal impacts.
No large long-period swell is anticipated to impact the region 
through at least middle of next week.
 
Gulf of California: A dissipating cold front approaching Baja 
California Norte late tonight will briefly enhance westerly winds
over the northern Gulf of California. On Thu, a weakening front 
will reach Baja California with minimal impacts over the Gulf. 
Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over the Gulf of California 
will lead to only gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf for 
the next several days.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: A strong cold front moving across the Gulf 
of Mexico should force the next gap wind event across the 
Tehuantepec region beginning on Tue afternoon. The Tehuantepecer 
may increase to gale force Tue night through Wed night, but still
continuing through at least Thu night. Seas are forecast to peak
around 15 ft Wed morning. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: A moderate pressure gradient across the western
Caribbean along with nighttime enhancements of the flow will
produce NE strong breeze conditions across the Gulf of Papagayo 
tonight, weakening Sun night. An increase in the Caribbean 
pressure gradient will significantly boost winds across the Gulf
of Papagayo Tue night through at least Thu night. Seas are
forecast to peak around 12 ft Thu morning. 

Gulf of Panama: Conditions will remain quiescent in the Gulf of 
Panama until Wed, when the Caribbean pressure gradient will 
enhance the N winds in the Gulf through at least Thu night. Seas 
will build to around 9 ft Thu morning.

Elsewhere conditions will remain quiescent through at least Thu
night. No large long-period swell are anticipated to impact the 
waters for the next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A dissipating cold front enters the forecast waters near 30N117W
and extends SW to near 22N130W. Scattered showers are present 
within 60 nm of the front. The front should dissipate as it 
reaches Baja California Norte tonight. 

Long-period NW swell mixing with wind waves due to tradewind 
flow is keeping an area of 8 to 9 ft roughly from 05N to 20N W 
of 130W. This swell will propagate toward the SE and subside to 
less than 8 ft by late Sun.

The next cold front is forecast to reach the NW corner of the
forecast region Sun night with fresh to strong winds on both
sides of the front. The associated low pressure will be near 
32N140W by early Mon morning with strong to near gale force 
winds likely in the SE quadrant of the low center. These near gale
conditions should impact our NW corner on Mon. Then, the low is 
forecast to move NE, and a new set of long period NW swell is 
expected to invade the NW forecast waters on Mon night with seas 
of up to 15 ft.

$$
Landsea