000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021559 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1332 UTC Sat Mar 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 07N90W to 03N110W to 01N125W to 03N140W. Isolated moderate convection is noted near 04N90W, and within about 150 nm S of the ITCZ between 104W and 108W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California through Wed with no significant cold fronts reaching the region. On Sun, the pressure gradient will tighten between the ridge W of Baja and lower pressure over Mexico. As a result, fresh to locally strong NW to N winds will affect the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California Sun night into Mon, with building seas to 8 ft. Otherwise, no large long-period swell is anticipated to impact the region through at least middle of next week. Gulf of California: The remnants of a frontal boundary will approach Baja California Norte late today. Westerly winds are forecast to increase to 20 to 25 kt near 30N across northern Baja California, and the northern Gulf of California briefly. Another and better defined frontal boundary is forecast to approach the area Wed night. Southerly winds ahead of the boundary will likely increase to fresh to strong N of 30N. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over the Gulf of California will lead to only gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf for the next several days. Gulf of Tehuantepec: A strong cold front expected to move across the Gulf of Mexico should induce a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event starting on Tue afternoon, possibly increasing to gale force Tue night and continuing through Wed night into early Thu morning. Seas are forecast to peak around 15 ft Wed morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate forcing from the SW Caribbean tradewinds assisted by nocturnal drainage flow will enhance winds across the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun, returning Mon night into early Tue. An increase in the Caribbean pressure gradient will significantly boost winds again over the Gulf of Papagayo Tue night into Wed. Near gale or gale conditions are possible Wed night, with seas building to 11 or 12 ft. Gulf of Panama: A weak pressure gradient across Panama will cause only fresh breeze or weaker N winds in the Gulf of Panama through Tue, before being enhanced starting on Wed. Seas will build to around 8 ft Wed night with increasing winds. Winds outside of the Gulfs will remain at fresh breeze conditions or weaker through Tue, increasing to fresh to strong near the Azuero Peninsula Tue night through Wed night. No large long- period swell are anticipated to impact the waters for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weakening cold front enters the forecast waters near 30N124W and extends SW to near 24N130W. A surface trough is over the NW corner and stretches from 30N136W to 28N140W. The front should dissipate as it reaches just W of northern Baja California late today. The trough will be just N of area by early Sun. Long-period NW swell mixing with wind waves due to trade wind flow is keeping an area of 8 to 10 ft roughly N of 05N W of 130W, and from 05N to 17N between 119W and 130W. This swell will propagate toward the SE and subside to less than 8 ft N of 20N early Sun. The next cold front is forecast to reach the NW corner of the forecast region Sun night with fresh to strong winds on either side of the front. The associated low pressure will be near 30N140W by early Mon morning with strong to gale force winds likely in the SE quadrant of the low center. Then, the low is forecast to move NE, and a new set of long period NW swell is expected to invade the NW forecast waters on Mon night with seas of up to 15 ft. $$ GR