000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020908 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Mar 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 05N86W to 02N100W to 00N120W to 01N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 02N to 06N between 88W and 94W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03S to 01N between 102W and 106W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California through Wed with no significant cold fronts reaching the region. The pressure gradient will tighten near Baja California Sur with NW to N winds increasing to fresh to locally strong Sun and Sun night, building seas to 8 ft. Otherwise, no large long-period swell is anticipated to impact the region through at least middle of next week. Gulf of California: A decaying frontal boundary or the remnants will approach Baja California Norte during the next 24 hours. Westerly winds are forecast to funnel through a pass along 30N with winds increasing to fresh to strong from about 29.5N to 30.5N W of 114W very briefly. Another and better defined frontal boundary is forecast to approach the area Wed night. Southerly winds ahead of the boundary will likely increase to fresh to strong N of 30N. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over the Gulf of California will lead to only gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf for the next several days. Gulf of Tehuantepec: A strong cold front expected to move across the Gulf of Mexico should induce a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event starting on Tue afternoon, possibly increasing to gale force Tue night and continuing through Wed night. Seas are projected to peak around 15 ft Wed morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate forcing from the SW Caribbean tradewinds assisted by nocturnal drainage flow will enhance winds across the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun, returning Mon night into early Tue. An increase in the Caribbean pressure gradient will significantly boost winds again over the Gulf of Papagayo Tue and Wed to near gale or gale conditions. Seas are project to peak around 11 ft Wed night. Gulf of Panama: A weak pressure gradient across Panama will cause only fresh breeze or weaker N winds in the Gulf of Panama through Tue, before being enhanced starting on Wed. Seas will build to around 8 ft Wed night with increasing winds. Winds outside of the Gulfs will remain at fresh breeze conditions or weaker through Tue, increasing to fresh to strong near the Azuero Peninsula Tue night through Wed night. No large long- period swell are anticipated to impact the waters for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weakening cold front extends from a complex low pressure area N of 32N through 30N126W to 23N133W then dissipating to 19N140W. Extensive upper cloudiness and scattered showers are present within 300 nm E of a line running from 30N126W to 14N140W. The front should dissipate as it reaches just W of Baja California during the next 12 to 24 hours. Long-period NW swell with up to 12 ft seas are present currently N of 18N W of 125W. This swell will propagate toward the SE and subside to less than 8 ft by Sun. The next cold front to reach our NW corner at 30N140W will arrive Sun night with winds of strong breeze to near gale, with a second, reinforcing front quickly on its heels Mon night, with yet a third boundary into Wed, all of which will rotate around a complex deepening low N of the area. $$ Lewitsky