000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020254
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0236 UTC Sat Mar 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

Climatologically, during portions of the months of March and
April of each year, a double ITCZ develops across the eastern
Pacific basin, with a convergence zone of clouds and convection
on either side of the Equator. This pattern is present today
while no monsoon trough is analyzed E of 140W.

Currently, the ITCZ in the northern Hemisphere extends from
05N87W to 01N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed
within 90 nm of the axis E of 95W. A second active ITCZ is 
observed south of the Equator, with a weak 1010 mb low pressure 
near 05S93W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  

A surface ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters W of 
Baja California through Wed with no significant cold fronts 
reaching the region. No large long-period swell is anticipated 
to impact the region through at least middle of next week.

Gulf of California: A weak pressure gradient over the Gulf of 
California will lead to only gentle to moderate winds across the 
Gulf for the next several days.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: A strong cold front expected to move across 
the Gulf of Mexico should induce a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind 
event starting on Mon night, possibly becoming a gale Tue night 
and continuing through Wed. Seas are projected to peak around 15
ft Wed morning. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate forcing from the SW Caribbean 
tradewinds assisted by nocturnal drainage flow will enhance winds
across the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun. An increase in the 
Caribbean pressure gradient will significantly boost winds again 
over the Gulf of Papagayo Tue and Wed to near gale or gale 
conditions. Seas are project to peak around 10 ft Wed morning.

Gulf of Panama: A weak pressure gradient across Panama will 
cause only fresh breeze or weaker N winds in the Gulf of Panama 
through Tue, before being enhanced starting on Wed. Seas are not
expected to reach 8 ft in the Gulf through Wed.

Winds outside of the Gulfs will remain at fresh breeze conditions
or weaker through Wed. No large long-period swell are 
anticipated to impact the waters for the next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A weak cold front extends from a 1003 mb low north of our area at
35N131W down to 27N130W. Extensive upper cloudiness and 
scattered showers are present within 300 nm of a line running
from 15N140W to 30N122W. The front should dissipate as it reaches
Baja California Sat night. The next cold front to reach our NW 
corner at 30N140W will arrive Mon with winds of strong breeze to
near gale.

Long-period NW swell with up to 12 ft seas are present currently
N of 25N W of 135W. These will propagate toward the SE and 
diminish below 8 ft by Sun. 

$$
Landsea