000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012204
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2135 UTC Fri Mar 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

Climatologically, during portions of the months of March and
April of each year, a double ITCZ develops across the eastern
Pacific basin, with a convergence zone of clouds and convection
on either side of the Equator. This pattern is present today
while no monsoon trough is analyzed E of 140W.

Currently, the ITCZ in the northern Hemisphere extends from
06N90W to 01S140W. No significant deep convection is noted. A 
second active ITCZ is observed south of the Equator, with a weak 
1012 mb low pressure near 06S93W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  

A surface ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters W of 
Baja California through Wed with no significant cold fronts 
reaching the region. No large long-period swell is anticipated 
to impact the region through at least middle of next week.

Gulf of California: A weak pressure gradient over the Gulf of 
California will lead to only gentle to moderate winds across the 
Gulf for the next several days.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: A strong cold front expected to move across 
the Gulf of Mexico should induce a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind 
event starting on Mon night, possibly becoming a gale Tue night 
and continuing through Wed.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate forcing from the SW Caribbean 
tradewinds assisted by nocturnal drainage flow will enhance winds
across the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun. An increase in the 
Caribbean pressure gradient will significantly boost winds again 
over the Gulf of Papagayo Tue and Wed to near gale or gale 
conditions. 

Gulf of Panama: A weak pressure gradient across Panama will 
cause only fresh breeze or weaker N winds in the Gulf of Panama 
through Tue, before being enhanced starting on Wed.

Winds outside of the Gulfs will remain at fresh breeze conditions
or weaker through Wed. No large long-period swell are 
anticipated to impact the waters for the next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A weak cold front extends from a 1007 mb low at 30N137W to
23N140W. Scattered showers are present within 60 nm of the front.
A surface trough extends from 24N136W to 12N143W. While no
significant winds are associated with the trough, extensive
upper cloudiness and scattered showers are present within 300 nm
east of the trough. The next cold front to reach our NW corner at
30N140W will arrive Mon with winds strong breeze to near gale.

Long-period NW swell with up to 12 ft seas are present currently
N of 25N W of 135W. These will propagate toward the SE and 
gradually diminish. 

$$
Landsea