000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011554 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1311 UTC Fri Mar 1 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... Climatologically, during portions of the months of March and April of each year, a double ITCZ develops across the eastern Pacific basin, with a convergence zone of clouds and convection on either side of the Equator. This pattern is present today while no monsoon trough is analyzed E of 140W. Currently, the ITCZ in the northern Hemisphere extends from 07N90W to 01N110W to 08N128W to 02N140W. No significant convection is noted. A second, and active ITCZ is observed south of the Equator, with a weak 1010 mb low pressure near 05S91W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1020 mb located near 28N121W dominates the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California, producing a moderate to locally fresh NW to N wind flow. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range with NW swell. Winds will slightly increase south of Punta Eugenia on Sun while a ridge persists across the area. Gulf of California: Light to gentle winds are expected across the northern Gulf during the next several days. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the remainder of the Gulf , with seas generally under 3 ft. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Looking ahead, the next substantial gap wind event through the Gulf of Tehuantepec will be early Tue. Gale conditions are possible by Tue evening. This gap wind event will be associated with a strong high pressure building across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. Elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters, moderate winds and seas will persist into early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun, but particularly during the overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow, and some added enhancement from the easterly gradient flow from the SW Caribbean. Strong high pressure building N of the area is forecast to support a stronger gap wind event across the Papagayo region Tue night into Wed. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are expected across the Gulf of Panama mainly at night through the forecast period. Seas will remain in the 3 to 5 ft range. Generally moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1007 mb low pressure is near 29N140W. Latest scatterometer pass indicated fresh to strong winds within about 270 nm in the S semicircle of the low center. Similar wind speeds are also noted ahead of a cold front/surface trough located E of the low center, with seas of 10 to 14 ft based on altimeter data. The cold front enters the forecast region near 30N135W and extends to 28N135W. From this point, a surface trough continues to beyond 17N140W. The low pressure will be N of the area by Sat morning. The trough will move eastward across the forecast waters extending from 30N124W to 24N130W to 17N140W on Sat, and dissipating by Sun. Long period NW swell dominates much of the waters W of 110W. This swell event will continue to propagate across the forecast region on Sat, reaching much of the area W of 100W. Seas of 8 to 11 ft will linger over the region north of 20N west of 130W into Sat. Farther south, northwest swell will mix with wind waves due to trade wind flow from 07N to 12N between 122W and 133W. Looking ahead, another cold front will move to the northeast of Hawaii and cross 140W by late Sun into Mon, accompanied by fresh to strong SW to W winds, with a new round of NW swell in excess of 8 ft. $$ GR