000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011003
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Mar 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ is along 07N86W, to a 1010 mb low pressure center that 
is near 03N94W, to 01N97W, to 01N110W, to 02N120W, and to 
05N140W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong 
rainshowers are within 180 nm N quadrant, and within 120 NM in 
the SE quadrant, of the 1010 mb low pressure center. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  

From 20N northward: Earlier scatterometer data indicated 
generally moderate NW winds. These winds will diminish to gentle-
to-moderate by Saturday morning. A high pressure center is 
forecast to move to 27N119W on Friday night. A surface ridge is 
forecast to be along 26N128W 26N118W 15N108W 14N100W, and expect 
gentle-to-moderate NW winds, on Saturday night. 

From 20N southward: Expect light-to-gentle winds, variable in 
direction, during the entire period.

The Gulf of Tehuantepec: The next gap wind event is forecast to 
start on Tuesday morning. Expect N to NE winds 20 to 30 knots, 
and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet, N of 14N between 
94W and 96W on Tuesday afternoon. The areal coverage of the 
event will expand with time, the wind speeds will increase, and 
the sea heights will build, with time, by Tuesday night. The 
situation will reach N-to-NE gale-force winds of 30 to 40 knots, 
and sea heights ranging from 15 feet to 16 feet, from Tuesday 
night into Wednesday morning, within 60 nm on either side of the 
line from 16N95W 13.5N95.5W 12N99W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the region will support fresh to 
occasionally strong gaps winds across the Gulf of Papagayo, from 
now until Friday night, from Saturday night until Sunday 
afternoon, and then from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. 
Generally moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere, and in 
the Gulf of Panama.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A surface trough extends from a 1011 mb low pressure center, 
that is near 29N135W, to 26N135W, and to 21N138W. Scatterometer 
data show that 20 to 30 knot winds are within 450 nm of the low 
center in the SE quadrant. 20 to 25 knot winds are within 120 nm 
of the low center in the NE quadrant. Widely scattered moderate 
to isolated strong rainshowers are within 360 nm to the east of 
the trough and 1011 mb low pressure center.

A weak cold front will be moving across the area, from west-to-
east, on Friday and Saturday, dissipating by Saturday night into 
Sunday morning. Expect sea heights to reach as high as 12 to 14 
feet on Friday and Saturday.

A second cold front will move into the far NW corner of the area 
from Monday night, through Tuesday night. Expect 20 to 25 knot 
westerly winds to the west of the front, and sea heights 
reaching 15 feet, N of 25N from 130W westward.

$$

mt