443 AXPZ20 KNHC 281556 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1555 UTC Thu Feb 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gale warning: A vigorous deep layer low northeast of the Big Island is moving toward northern California. An upper trough ahead of the low is supporting development of 1010 mb low pressure near 24N138W. Thunderstorms are active just ahead of the low pressure as it moves northeast through the area. A broad area of strong to near gale force winds is active ahead of the low pressure. These winds may reach minimal gale force through the afternoon, especially near areas of thunderstorms. A gale warning has been issued to account for this. For more information, please see the High Seas Forecast at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 08N85W to 02N100W to 02N130W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms are noted from 01N to 05N between 87W and 93W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... An overnight scatterometer pass indicated generally moderate NW winds off Baja California, although more recent ship observations hinted winds have increased slightly north of Punta Eugenia. These winds will diminish through Fri as high pressure west of Baja California shifts eastward and dissipates, ahead of a weak cold front moving through the region Sun. Elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters, moderate winds and seas will persist into early next week. Looking ahead, the next substantial gap wind event through the Gulf of Tehuantepec will be early Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure north of the region will support fresh to occasionally strong gaps winds across the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun. Generally moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere, with occasionally fresh winds pulsing into the western Gulf of Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front will pass east of 140W late today following the small gale center moving across the region. The front will weaken while it moves eastward over the waters north of 18N, as upper support for the front lifts north of the area. The dissipating front or its remnant trough will move into Baja California by Sun. Strong SW winds will precede the front Fri, with seas to 13 ft. The area of strong winds will move north of 30N by Fri night, with northwest swell of 8 to 11 ft lingering over the region north of 20N west of 130W into Sat. Farther south, northwest swell will mix with wind waves due to trade wind flow from 05N to 18N west of 120W into early next week. Looking ahead, another cold front will move to the northeast of Hawaii and cross 140W by late Sun into Mon, accompanied by strong SW to W winds with a new round of NW swell in excess of 8 ft. $$ Christensen