000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280931
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Feb 28 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N85W to 02N96W. The 
intertropical convergence zone axis extends close to the equator 
from 01N99W to 01N131W. Scattered moderate rain showers are from 
the equator to 06N between 89W and 93W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  

Weak high pressure centered west of Baja California 27N121W 
supports moderate NW winds across most of the Gulf of California 
and along the west coast of Baja California. Model guidance 
indicates the next gap wind event in Tehuantepec will begin Tue 
evening, with strong winds rapidly increasing to gale force.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will continue across 
the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun. Moderate to fresh N winds will 
continue in the Gulf of Panama through Mon.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A broad area of low pressure centered west-northwest of the 
discussion area near 31N151W will shift east-southeast into the 
waters east of 140W through Fri morning, with the low dragging a 
cold front across the NW portion of the area. Global model 
guidance indicates a intense low pressure area will briefly spin 
up east of the cold front, and reach its maximum intensity of 
greater than 30 kt around 18Z this afternoon near 25N136W. Seas 
associated with this low will quickly build to 10-12 ft, then 
diminish as the low tracks northwestward and weakens tonight. 
The cold front extending from the primary low pressure system 
will reach from 30N132W to 25N134W to 19N140W Friday. Fresh to 
strong southerly winds are expected ahead of the front through 
Fri night but strongest winds will be from 25N to 28N west of 
the front on Friday.

$$
Mundell