000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272201 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Feb 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 0N100W to 01N114W to 03N130W. Secondary ITCZ from 03S105W to 02S120W to 01S128W. Scattered moderate rain showers and a few thunderstorms are noted from 0N to 05N between 87W and 90W, and from 01N to 04N between 111W and 123W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 1023 mb high pressure centered near 26N120W will support mainly light to gentle winds off Baja California and the Gulf of California through Fri, increasing slightly to moderate to fresh winds off the coast of Baja California Sat and Sun ahead of a deep layer trough moving to the northwest of the region. Farther south in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, weakening high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will support a pulse of moderate to fresh gap winds tonight. This will likely be the last pulse for several days as the overall pressure gradient relaxes. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Persistent strong trade winds over the SW Caribbean will support strong gap winds through the Gulf of Papagayo with 8 ft downstream, which will subside to below 8 ft on Thu. Moderate to fresh northerly gap winds will be active through the Gulf of Panama at night, mainly near the Azuero peninsula through Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 1023 mb high pressure is centered near 26N120W with moderate to fresh trade winds on the southern periphery of the high pressure. Otherwise gentle to moderate trade winds persist. A dissipating cold front is west of the high pressure reaching from 31N125W to 25N131W, dissipating this evening. A large area of long period NW swell in excess of 8 ft is following the front. The swell will encompass much of the region north of 12N and west of 127W through Thu morning. Meanwhile low pressure will become organized northeast of the Big Island through Thu, then move northeastward toward northern California through Sat. Strong SW to W winds and reinforcing swell will follow the cold front associated with the low pressure, impacting the waters north of 22N and west of 126W through Fri night. Strong S winds are also expected ahead of the cold front N of 25N early Fri through Fri night. Winds and seas diminish through Sat evening, as the low pressure moves well north of the area and the front dissipates. Seas in excess of 8 ft will linger in a mix of NW swell and shorter period trade wind swell south of 15N through Mon. A new cold front will enter the NW waters Sun evening with another set of long period swell with seas in the range of 8 to 14 ft continuing through early next week. $$ NR