000 AXPZ20 KNHC 271450 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1450 UTC Wed Feb 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The intertropical convergence zone axis continues from 07N85W to 02N100W to 07N130W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate rain showers and a few thunderstorms are noted from 03N to 06N between 87W and 90W. Scattered showers are also active from 01N to 04N between 111W and 120W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 1021 mb high pressure centered near 24N120W will support mainly light to gentle winds off Baja California and the Gulf of California through Fri, increasing slightly to moderate to fresh winds off the coast of Baja California Sat and Sun ahead of a deep layer trough moving to the northwest of the region. Farther south in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, weakening high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will support a pulse of moderate to fresh gap winds tonight. This will likely be the last pulse for several days as the overall pressure gradient relaxes. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Persistent strong trade winds over the SW Caribbean will support strong to gap winds through the Gulf of Papagayo, and fresh to strong winds elsewhere off the coast of Nicaragua to the Gulf of Fonseca. The combination of gap winds off Nicaragua and Costa Rica will produce an area of seas to 11 ft downstream, which will subside to below 8 ft by late week. Moderate to fresh northerly gap winds will be active through the Gulf of Panama, mainly near the Azuero peninsula, the next couple of nights. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 24N120W. Recent reports from the German research vessel Sonne along with a concurrent altimeter pass indicate moderate to fresh trade winds on the southern periphery of the high pressure. Otherwise gentle to moderate trade winds persist. A weakening cold front is noted west of the high pressure reaching from 30N128W to 27N130W. While there is little sensible weather along the front, and the front itself will dissipate through late today, a large area of long period NW swell in excess of 8 ft is following the front. The swell will encompass much of the region north of 13N and west of 130W tonight. Meanwhile low pressure will become organized northeast of the Big Island through Thu, then move northeastward toward northern California through Sat. Strong SW winds and reinforcing swell will follow the cold front associated with the low pressure, impacting the waters north of 20N and west of 125W through Fri. Winds and seas diminish through Sun, as the low pressure moves well north of the area and the front stalls. Seas in excess of 8 ft will linger in a mix of NW swell and shorter period trade wind swell south of 15N through late Sun. $$ Christensen