000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270240 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Feb 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from near the Pacific coast of the border between Costa Rica and Panama near 08N83W to 01N100W. The intertropical convergence zone axis continues from 01N100W to 01N113W to 07N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong within an area bounded by 09N86W to 07N85W to 00N90W to 00N93W to 07N90W to 09N86W, and also from 01N to 05N between 113W and 129W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 09N between 127W and 133W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure north of the region will support pulses of fresh to strong gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec through mid week, diminishing late in the week as the high pressure weakens and shifts east. A weak pressure pattern will support generally gentle to moderate NW winds elsewhere off Mexico, locally increasing to fresh off Baja California norte at the end of the week into the weekend. NW swell will build offshore Baja California Norte by the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A large area of persistent strong easterly trade winds across the southwest Caribbean Sea will support strong to near gale force gap winds through the Gulf of Papagayo, and fresh to strong winds elsewhere off the coast of Nicaragua to the Gulf of Fonseca. The combination of gap winds off Nicaragua and Costa Rica is support an area of seas to 11 ft within 500 nm downstream which will subside to below 8 ft by late week. Similarly moderate to fresh northerly gap winds will be active through the Gulf of Panama, mainly near the Azuero peninsula, the next couple of nights. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 1020 mb high pressure is centered near 26N120W. A large patch of fresh trade winds is south of the high pressure between 10N and 15N. Earlier altimeter passes showed seas of 8 to 9 ft in this area. West of the high pressure, a weak cold front has entered in the forecast area. This is breaking up the subtropical ridge, resulting in only moderate trade winds elsewhere farther south into the tropics. Strong SW winds are possible just ahead of the front north of 29N, although most of these winds will lift north of the area in the next several hours as the front moves west and weakens. Altimeter passes from farther west confirm large NW swell will follow the front. Swell in excess of 8 ft will cover the waters north of 10N west of 125W by Thu. By late Thu into Fri, model guidance indicates developing and deepening low pres west of the area and northwest of the Hawaiian Islands towards the end of the week. Strong southerly winds and seas building to 12 ft are likely north of 20N west of 130W by early Fri as the low pressure and its associated frontal boundary move to the north of the area. Looking ahead, winds and seas gradually diminish Sat and Sun as the low pressure moves farther north of the region. $$ Lewitsky